“China and the region, including Japan, are keenly watching what transpires on Saturday”
I borrowed the title of today’s column from that of a book of similar title (Why Taiwan Matters by Shelley Rigger; Bowman & Littlefield) which my friend Paul Dominguez gifted me with after learning that I would be President Duterte’s first appointment to a foreign post, albeit an unofficial diplomatic assignment as MECO Chairman and Resident Representative.
On Saturday, some 14 out of 19.5 million eligible voters of Taiwan will vote for president and their parliament.
It is one of the most keenly watched elections ever, Taiwan having become the cynosure of world attention especially after Russia invaded Ukraine.
It could be the next geopolitical flashpoint, and it is just about 200 kilometers of turbulent waters away from our territory.
In contention are three: Lai Ching-te, the current vice-president, for the Democratic People’s Party; Hou You-ih, mayor of New Taipei City, for the Kuomintang; and former Taipei City mayor Ko Wen-je for Taiwan People’s Party.
In November, a coalition being forged between opposition KMT and TPP petered out, with the Ko Wen-je insisting on running for president. Had that “uniteam” materialized, DPP would have been a goner.
As it is, the latest polls give the DPP’s Lai a close (3 to 5 percent) advantage over KMT’s Hou. With three days before the elections yesterday, that margin could yet change, if some of TPP’s vote swing to Hou.
China dislikes DPP and particularly Lai, who in the past openly espoused an independent Taiwan, although in this campaign he has toned down his anti-mainland rhetoric, preferring to espouse the safer “status quo,” which means let things remain as they are, with the island being ruled by a democratic order still officially called the “Republic of China.”
Both Hou and Ko make some difference by stating that dialogue between the mainland and the island-state should resume, frozen as relations have been after the victory of DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen since 2016.
While staunchly against a communist one-party order, both maintain that the two sides must talk, without ruling out unification in the future.
Thus, the elections are the most keenly watched since the Chiangs, father and son, died, and a strong democratic order prevailed in Taiwan since.
With China’s Xi Jin-ping vowing to “unify” Taiwan as a province of the mainland, “by force if necessary,” jitters in the region are up because of the strategic location of Taiwan, which makes it “matter” geo-politically, and it being an economic powerhouse, supplying some 85 percent of the world’s semi-conductors, apart from being a manufacturing and export giant in other goods.
The US of A, consistent with its claim to being the “constable” of the world and guardian of the prevailing economic order, has vowed to “protect” the status of Taiwan and the international sea lanes which at the moment pass through the narrow Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea which the PRC claims almost in its entirety.
Will a continued reign by the DPP hasten Xi’s timetable for occupation of the island in pursuit of his dream of the “great rejuvenation” through the last and vital cog in its unification of the Han and Manchu races?
And how would the US of A and its allies, especially with its new-found military bases in northern Philippines react should Xi force his way through “by force?”
Would Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong be proven right in his warning that the Philippines might find itself a “battleground” if hostilities begin, just as it unfortunately was during the Second World War between the US of A and Japan?
For the sake of “peace in our time,” to borrow from Neville Chamberlain’s “infamous” assurance after meeting Hitler, would a Hou and Kuomintang victory be best for the region?
Having stayed in the island-state for five years, I will be cautious in saying that a Kuomintang victory is well nigh possible, despite the latest surveys.
Most businessmen favor friendlier, at least non-antagonistic relations with the mainland, and so do the senior citizens who consider themselves one in blood with the other side of the straits.
If the young, with whom Taipei’s Ko Wen-je is currently the popular choice, deem it best to switch to the KMT which has a better chance of unseating the DPP, then Hou should win this election.
If economic problems weigh most in the choice of who to vote for, and “independence” and “democracy” are weighed less by the 40 percent aged up to 49 years, then the KMT could snatch a close victory.
China and the region, including Japan, are keenly watching what transpires on Saturday.
The Philippines should too, because having cemented our relations with the West and allowed military bases close to Taiwan, we could be in the line of fire, IF and WHEN, though hopefully not.