The Philippines may import as much as 3.9 million metric tons (MT) of rice in 2024, like the projection of the February 2024 grains report published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), but it can also be lower, the government said Friday.
“Last year, the USDA estimated a 3.8 million MT importation by the Philippines, but total importation was about 3.6 million MT. There are factors affecting rice dynamics and given that we have a strong El Niño episode, it is likely that we may import what the USDA has projected,” said Department of Agriculture spokesperson Arnel de Mesa.
With interventions in place, El Niño may not cause extensive damage to farms and crops and the likelihood to import less rice is a possibility, he added.
The DA said the dry spell has started to affect farms in El Niño-prone provinces, but the damages are within expectations and not as large-scale as predicted.
The government is targeting to maintain at least the same output as last year since the DA is prepared to battle El Niño in terms of increasing crops production equipped with all the farm inputs needed to support food security.
On Feb. 8, the USDA released its February issue of the Grain: World Markets and Trade report, citing the Philippines as the world’s biggest importer of rice with an estimated 3.9 million MT importation in 2024.
The grains report revealed a 100,000 MT increase from the previous forecast of 3.8 million MT rice imports for the year.
The USDA data showed that the estimated importation by the Philippines is way higher than countries with bigger populations like China and Indonesia.
The report said total imports forecast are virtually unchanged as an increase for Indonesia and the Philippines offset a decrease for China.
While Indonesia is importing 2.9 million MT of rice, 400 MT higher than the previous estimate of 2.5 million MT, China has, in fact, reduced its estimated importation by 500 MT to 2.3 million MT.
The USDA assumed that the recent agreement between the Philippines and Vietnam on sustainable rice trade cooperation may have influenced the latest projection.
Under the memorandum of understanding Vietnam committed to supply the Philippines with 1.5 to 2 million MT of white rice annually in the next 5 years.
In 2023, the Philippines posted record rice production of 20.06 million MT, 1.5 percent higher than the 2022 output of 19.76 million MT.
Despite record harvest, the DA is concerned that supply may not be sufficient to feed the nation for an entire year.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel said the government remains open to importation since the country’s rice inventory is good untilthe first semester only.