Some economic indicators and corporate disclosures of late are pointing to an economy that is about to reach its pre-pandemic level. These numbers will likely translate into a robust first-quarter economic growth once the government officially releases the gross domestic product report in May.
One leading gauge of an economy on the rebound is automotive sales. Vehicle sales in March jumped 43 percent to 29,685 March from a year ago and nearly reached the industry’s pre-pandemic monthly level of 30,000 units. Higher car sales reflect consumer confidence. They are an indication that the middle-income earners are upbeat about their financial prospects and are willing to invest in high-ticket items.
Another solid basis for a recovering economy is the performance of the manufacturing sector, which grew faster in both volume and value in February. The volume of production index expanded 84.3 percent in February from a year ago, faster than the 17.1-percent increase in January, as the economic reopening and the easing of mobility restrictions boosted consumer and business confidence. Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez notes that with fewer COVID-19 cases in February and March, “all signs point to a full recovery in full swing starting March and in the coming months.”
Increased electricity sales complement the expansion of the Philippine economy. Sales of Manila Electric Co., the country’s biggest electricity retailer, rose nearly 6 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. Higher residential, commercial and industrial electricity sales are a reliable measure of expanding business activities and strong consumer demand.
The economic recovery is also evident in the travel and tourism sectors based on the public statements of airline companies. Cebu Pacific expects to restore 100 percent of its pre-pandemic domestic capacity this month on the easing of air travel restrictions, while Qatar Airways Group is hiring more crew from the Philippines to support global operations amid the recovery of the travel industry. Flag carrier Philippine Airlines has made a turnaround when it registered a comprehensive income of P56.49 billion in 2021 from a huge P73-billion loss in 2020.
The emerging economic data are snapshots of how the economy performed in the first three months of 2022. The Philippines could even surpass economic expectations in the coming months once it fully removes all mobility restrictions and starts the new normal.