“Warmer temperatures are the enemy of all food products, and no amount of BSP interest rate hikes can correct supply deficits”
After celebrating the longest holiday season in the universe, from the ‘-ber’ months that were hotter this year than any other, and after the ear-splitting cacophony of crazy fireworks, the morning after is upon us.
It is that period in our lives when, getting back to face reality, we begin pondering over the prospects of the ‘new’ year, amid continuing violence in the Holy Land, a protracted war in the Ukraine and, closer to home, the tensions in the China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
The reputable polling outfits ended the year by releasing findings which may have seemed strange to foreigners, but expected in these ‘happy’ isles, that Filipinos look to the coming year with an incurably optimistic outlook, filled with “pag-asa.”
The wise and experienced Ronnie Zamora of San Juan, once the brilliant workhorse of the president’s father in Malacanang, has always described the Filipino as “never serious.” Ever hopeful, ever laughing through it all.
While the events in Eastern Europe and the Levant continue to impact negatively on our economy, it was our internal diseconomies that hounded the ordinary among us in this “land of the morning.”
Inflation, hunger among the poorest, unrest and near-despair in the transport sector, minimal employment that our government still tout as “gains,” worsening poverty, a legislature concerned only with its pork and greedy percentages, a peripatetic president given to nice-sounding speeches and promises, and a politics that has gotten more controlled by the privileged few — all these continue to make our beautiful islands as benighted as could be.
As every new year unfolds, we find that things have not changed, “walang pagbabago,” despite all the promises of a ‘New Society’ re-branded as “Bagong Pilipinas.”
Sure, there have been some changes, from the “volte face” in foreign policy back to the embrace of the US of A; a gentler ‘war’ against drugs; a more docile traditional media though fake news still abound; passports released much faster; the LTO now has vehicle plates after a long drought of inefficiency; a refreshing focus on culture not seen since Imelda; even a more liberal atmosphere recently exemplified by a kinder government stand over the LGBTQ+A community.
Harnessing street-smart, business-oriented persons to government is a most welcome change.
So now that the morning after (January 2) has come, how does this writer see 2024?
Inflation, especially on food prices, will bedevil us throughout the year, with rice giving us the biggest headache. Lower production in the last season caused prices to perk up, but expect it to climb further upwards in 2024.
Meteorologists warn about a severe El Nino, which will impact not only upon the country, but most of the world as well.
The law of supply and demand will then take over, with the major exporters limiting supply and raising prices.
The summer harvest here will be much lower, and unless we are able to import more and at the right time, a feat too difficult even with India allowing us to buy 295,000 tons, we could be seeing (pray it does not happen) long queues for the staple mid-2024.
(My grandmother, who grew up in Bulacan and used to have a rice farm there, and my grand-uncle who for the longest time milled palay in Pangasinan, told us that whenever “mahal na araw” came in March rather than April, expect harvests to be low. El Nino will give us scientific reason for that this year).
Warmer temperatures are the enemy of all food products, and no amount of BSP interest rate hikes can correct supply deficits.
Strict monetary policy though will affect business expansion, especially for the MSME’s, and Maharlika, despite the brilliance and work ethic of Joel Consing and his board, shall not be able to help out in 2024.
Despite a huge budget which Congress approved with much breast-beating, the legacy debt from Covid and other concerns will continue to hound efforts at government spending to tilt the balance for low investments and even reduced consumer spending, for years and years the savior of our GDP.
The stock market will still be listless. The fiscal deficit will be bigger. And the 14.8 trillion debt will grow bigger.
Despite our ‘friendship’ with the US and its allies, FDI’s will not come in as much as the President’s trips promised. Even the durian and banana ‘sop’ that is expected from China will not help.
Despite the peso depreciating to some 58 to the dollar, exports will not increase substantially, if at all, even as higher import costs impact more on less value-added production and consumer spending.
Our BPO’s will feel the impact of artificial intelligence, and we have failed to up-skill our workers to meet the challenge.
I can go on and on, but I am feeling lousy and depressed with all the things that will redound to less than government’s wished for GDP growth of 6 to 7%, even if the WB and ADB are for now cautiously going along with “whispering hope’.
Meanwhile, “bully” China will continue to needle us in what we call the WPS, tiring our meager forces and waiting till our population itself tires of all the flag-waving. It is the same strategy it has been employing upon Taiwan.
As China ‘bullies’ us more, the US will continue assuring us with empty talk and back-patting, while as its military-industrial complex profits from our marginal military spending, again similar to what it is doing in our northern neighbor.
On the political front, the unraveling of the Uniteam will continue, the pretensions of cooperation will lessen as the back-biting deepens, with denouement by mid-year as preparations for the mid-term elections heat up, unless cha-cha efforts materialize.
Here, I am yet to input the destabilizing effect of an ICC intrusion.
Which means the sound and fury of bad politics will dominate the news, a narcotic for the populace to perhaps get numb on the impact of the bad economy.
How I wish the efforts of Go and Tiu, the new architects of our president’s economic steerage, can work wonders and provide us tender mercies this year.
“When the going gets rough, the tough get going”, to use a trite saying. My wish for government in 2024.