“The President said he would go to these places. Is this another joke or empty threat?”
We wrote recently about the dire prospect of the May 9 elections getting enmeshed in violence and bloodshed. This is a distinct possibility that prompted President Rodrigo Duterte himself to want to go to those places where power-hungry politicians and their trigger-happy henchmen can be taught a lesson in restraint and humility that they would likely regret for the rest of their lives.
But was that another of his jokes or another empty threat?
In any event, according to the Philippine National Police (PNP), it’s the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) where they are closely watching 102 areas for possible election-related violence.
The BARMM consists of 116 towns in the provinces of Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi; the cities of Cotabato, Marawi and Lamitan; and 63 villages in six towns of Cotabato province.
The police classify 18 of the 102 localities in BARMM as “areas of immediate concern,” or critical areas, while 34 are “areas of concern” due to the presence of armed groups such as the Abu Sayyaf, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and Daulah Islamiyah. The 50 others are being monitored because they have a history of election-related violence.
BARMM interim Chief Minister Ahod Ebrahim has given assurances that the regional government as well as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) which he leads would help ensure peaceful elections.
After all, this is the first time that the MILF will officially participate in the electoral process as part of its transition from an armed revolutionary organization into a political party as a result of the peace deal it signed with the government eight years ago.
The MILF has formed the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) as its vehicle for participation in elections. For the May 9 polls, UBJP has fielded local bets and forged alliances with local political groups.
Be that as it may, police authorities are worried violence could spike at the local level with the start of the campaign period for local seats starting today.
It is true that we have a long history of elections marred by violent incidents. During the election period between January and June 2019, there were 60 violent incidents although the figure was lower than the 133 recorded during the same months in 2016.
Among the 113 victims of poll-related violence in 2019, a total of 23 were killed, down from the 50 fatalities during the 2016 elections.
Last December, the police identified 546 election “hot spots” ahead of next year’s polls, down from 946 in the 2019 elections.
Of the 488 towns and 58 cities tagged by the PNP, while many were part of the BARMM, there were also incidents in Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Bicol and Western Visayas.
Of the 546 hot spots, only 39 towns (3 percent out of the country’s 1,438 towns) and seven cities (5 percent out of 146 cities) were under the red category or considered areas of grave concern. By contrast, in the 2019 polls, the “red areas” numbered 540.
After the filing of certificates of candidacy for next year’s elections in October, the PNP ordered all unit commanders to start mapping out security plans in their respective areas as intense political rivalries were expected to intensify at the local level.
Earlier this month, the PNP said that it was carefully watching six private armed groups that could pose a threat to next year’s elections and 138 others that could instigate violence.
But will Russia stop the invasion?
The United Nations’ top court for disputes between states, the International Court of Justice based in The Hague (ICJ), recently ordered Russia to immediately halt its military operations in Ukraine, saying it was “profoundly concerned” by Moscow’s use of force.
Although the rulings of the ICJ, also known as the World Court, are binding, it has no direct means of enforcing them, and in rare cases in the past countries have ignored them.
The ICJ judges said in a 13-2 decision that Russia must also ensure that other forces under its control or supported by Moscow should stop the “special military operation”, as the Kremlin described the all-out invasion.
Ukraine filed a case before the ICJ shortly after Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, saying that Moscow’s stated justification, that it was acting to prevent a genocide in eastern Ukraine, was unfounded.
In addition to disputing the grounds for the invasion, Kyiv also asked for emergency “provisional” measures against Russia to halt the violence before the case was heard in full. Those measures were granted by the ICJ.
Ukrainian government forces have been battling Russia-backed separatists in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine since 2014. Kyiv and its Western allies reject Moscow’s claims of any genocide being perpetrated against pro-Russian sympathizers there.
Russia said it had skipped the hearings at the ICJ “in light of the apparent absurdity of the lawsuit”. It later filed a written document arguing that the court should not impose any measures.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the ruling by the ICJ on emergency measures as “a complete victory” in its case against Russia. “The (ICJ) order is binding under international law. Russia must comply immediately. Ignoring the order will isolate Russia even further,” he pointed out.
But the question is: Will Vladimir Putin accept the ICJ ruling?
At this point, we seriously doubt it. (Email: [email protected])