I doubt SP Zubiri would be able to cobble the numbers, but…in the kind of political system we have, the improbable might become possible
Since the “economic” amendments shall have been passed by the House this coming week, what remains to be seen is whether SP Migz Zubiri can produce the magic number corresponding to three-fourths of the Senate.
Last week and the week before, there was some buzz about a possible leadership change in the smaller chamber, such that Zubiri had to gather “confidence” signatures.
The “marites” in the GSIS Annex rented by the Senate was that at least nine senators were plotting a leadership change. We will no longer join that speculation since Zubiri got his 13 votes plus himself, and some other latecomers.
It is quite unseemly that the “marites” is all about “particion de bienes,” or division of “spoils,” which does not literally translate into anything good. Some are smarter than others. Some are more favored, or so the apportionment game went.
But that is of little moment, for now. Zubiri has the numbers to keep the throne.
Now the onus is upon him to produce the magic 18 votes needed to pass the measure that would lift foreign ownership restrictions on public utilities, education and advertising.
And that is where the problem lies.
There should be no more than six naysayers, and the betting is it would take super-human efforts for the SP to dissuade those who have made up their minds to go along and make “pakisama” with their House counterparts.
To begin with, there is Senadora Risa, who has never flinched. Likely as well the minority leader, Sen. Koko.
Senadora Imee and Senadora Cynthia have publicly stated they do not believe the economic amendments matter at all in the quest for foreign investments. The latter has said that there are at least seven senators who will not go along with the HoR.
Neither did Sen. Chiz buy the arguments of the resource persons who expressed opinions and not hard data to convince him about the need for amendments.
How will the siblings, Pia and Alan Cayetano, classified as politically aligned with the Davao “opposition” vote? How will Senadora Cynthia’s son, Mark, vote now that his mother has made what seems to be a firm stand against cha-cha?
And then there are the soon-to-be-graduates, Senators Grace and Nancy, independent-minded enough and with no re-election in sight.
How about the Davao group – the loyalists of FPRRD — Senators Bong Go and Bato? Would the latter ask guidance from the missing “son of God?”
SP pro-tempore Loren Legarda and committee-of-the-whole chairman Sonny Angara will likely go along and vote aye.
But do not be too sure about the “Majo” – Joel Villanueva, whose resentment at the HoR’s appropriations chief, Zaldy Co, runs deep?
The senators from the movie archives will likely go along — Senators Lapid, Estrada, Revilla and Robinhood, who consider Quiboloy a “hero.” The Estrada sibling, JV might be persuaded by the SP to vote yes.
Senator Tolentino might go along as well, despite his closeness to the former president. And Win Gatchalian too.
The senator whose survey numbers in the 2028 presidential sweepstakes have climbed astoundingly despite his being a neophyte, Raffy Tulfo, will have to read through the suspected game plan, which is that passing the “economic” cha-cha this early might be a prelude to term extension or a change in the political system, as the hardline objectors believe.
There is also the issue of timelines for the plebiscite required to approve of the amendments, assuming there are no Constitutional challenges brought before the Supreme Court.
If, as the President wants, the plebiscite should be held together with the mid-terms next year, a Constitutional challenge is likely, and so too the separate discussions on the proposals instead of a joint assembly.
Many senators will likely push the process as far as possible, despite the pressure from the House with its daily press conferences, paid advertisements and synchronized “appeals.”
So will Senate President Zubiri produce the three-fourths vote?
I doubt he would be able to cobble the numbers, but then again, in the kind of political system we have, the improbable might become possible.