DAVAO City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is now leading in the presidential race, the latest Social Weather Stations survey showed Monday.
The latest national scores in the presidential race showed Duterte with 27 percent, followed by Senator Grace Poe, 23 percent; Vice President Jejomar Binay, 20 percent; administration candidate Manuel Roxas II, 18 percent; and Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, 3 percent.
The First Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 30 to April 2, 2016 via face-to-face interviews with 1,500 adults nationwide (of whom 1,377 or 92 percent were validated voters) and with sampling error margins of ±3 points.
The SWS survey also showed Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. leading solo in the vice presidential race. Marcos’ closest contender, Senator Francis Escudero, saw his score fall from previous comparative surveys.
In the race for the presidency, Duterte saw a four-point gain from 23 percent in the March 8 to 11 survey—the last time face-to-face interviews were employed—but was down four points from 31 percent in the March 30 Bilang Pilipino-SWS Mobile Survey (that also surveyed those who participated in the March 8 to 11 poll).
Poe was down six points from 29 percent in the March 8 to 11 survey and by 11 points from her 34 percent in the mobile survey conducted last March 30.
Binay’s score settled at 20 percent in the latest survey from 22 percent last March 8 to 11, though it edged up from 17 percent on March 30.
Roxas, the ruling Liberal Party standard bearer, also settled at 18 percent from 19 percent last March 8 to 11 and from 17 percent last March 30.
Santiago swas steady at 3 percent, with no change from March 8 to 11, and up from one percent last March 30.
In the vice presidential race, Marcos took the solo lead at 26 percent in this latest survey from March 8 to 11 (25 percent) and March 30 (also 26 percent).
Escudero, Poe’s running mate, lost seven points to 21 percent from 28 percent last March 8 to 11 and 10 points from 31 percent last March 30.
The administration’s vice presidential candidate, Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo, who at 19 percent was in a statistical tie with Escudero, dropped three points from 22 percent last March 8 to 11 and dropped by six points from March 30’s 25 percent.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, running mate of Duterte, climbed slightly to 13 percent from 12 percent in March 8 to 11 and 13 percent on March 30.
Senator Gregorio Honasan II, Binay’s running mate, climbed to five percent from four percent last March 8 to 11 but increased four points from one percent last March 30.
Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, who has no presidential running mate, was tied with Honasan with five percent, flat from March 8 to 11 and steady from three percent last March 30.
The March 30 to April 2, 2016 survey has two Liberal Party candidates, one Nationalist People’s Coalition candidate, and one independent candidate in position to take the top four seats in the senatorial elections.
It had four independent candidates, three LP candidates, one United Nationalist Alliance candidate, one Akbayan candidate, one NPC candidate, and one Lakas candidate in statistical contention for the last eight seats.
Leading the circle of 12 are 1. Frank Drilon (LP) 45 percent, 2. Vicente Sotto (NPC) 42 percent, and 3-4. Francis Pangilinan (LP) and Panfilo Lacson (IND), each with 37 percent.
The last eight seats are being contested by 5-7. Leila De Lima (LP), Miguel Zubiri (IND) and Manny Pacquiao (UNA), each with 31 percent; 8-11. Risa Hontiveros (Akbayan), Sergio Osmeña III (IND), Ralph Recto (LP), and Dick Gordon (IND), each with 30 percent, 12. Joel Villanueva (LP) 28 percent, 13. Win Gatchalian (NPC) 25 percent, 14. Francis Tolentino (IND) 24 percent, and 15. Martin Romualdez (Lakas) 22 percent.
Using the ballot box technique, 32 percent of the survey respondents chose a full slate of 12 names, with the average number of names chosen at 7.9.
The April 2016 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 30 to April 2, 2016 using face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, North Luzon, South Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Of the 1,500 sample adults, 1,377 or 92 percent are validated voters, 268 in Metro Manila, 278 in North Luzon, 272 in South Luzon, 280 in Visayas and 279 in Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3 percent for national percentages, and ±6 percent each for Metro Manila, North Luzon, South Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao).
The vote percentages are based on the sample of validated voters only; they exclude adults who are not validated voters. The area estimates were weighted by the 2016 Commission on Elections data on validated voters to obtain the national estimates.
A statement released by Binay’s campaign said “a closer reading” of the SWS results showed declines for both Duterte and Poe, while the vice president was rising steadily on the strength of his core supporters.
“He will work harder—together with our various support groups—as Election Day nears,” the statement said.