A senior Department of Health official warned Thursday of a possibility of another COVID-19 surge if a new immune-escaping variant of the coronavirus entered the country and the immunity of the vaccinated people waned.
DOH Epidemiology Bureau chief Dr. Alethea de Guzman, in an interview, was asked if the BA.2.12.1 variant, which has been detected in 17 people in the country, could lead to a surge.
“If, number one, a new variant of concern that is more transmissible and immune escaping, which means the vaccine is least effective, enters the country,” De Guzman told GMA News’ Unang Balita.
“And if our immunity wall brought by full vaccination or booster shots declines, that would be the cause for a sudden increase in cases and admissions,” she said.
De Guzman said the BA.2.12.1 variant was 20 percent to 27 percent more transmissible and also immune-escaping.
She said there were some areas in the countries that reported an increase in COVID-19 cases in the previous months, but they were not sustained.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases in areas having low vaccination rate are expected to increase following the detection of more Omicron BA.2.12.1 cases in the country, an infectious disease expert said.
The unvaccinated and vulnerable sectors such as the elderly, immunocompromised, and health workers are more susceptible to the respiratory disease, said Dr. Rontgene Solante, who is also a member of the government’s vaccine expert panel.
“We expect cases will increase especially in those areas with low vaccination rate. It’s important we know this variant or sublineage has a high transmissibility,” he said in a televised press briefing.
“There’s a possibility cases will increase, but I don’t think it will be enough to affect our hospitalization rate,” he also said.
The DOH earlier said senior citizens and frontline healthcare workers may now avail their second booster shot against COVID-19.
It added that availing a second booster would strengthen immunity against the virus as well as the Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1.
At present, there are 17 cases of the subvariant detected in the country — two in the National Capital Region, 12 in Puerto Princesa, and three in Western Visayas.
The government earlier announced there were three additional patients with the highly transmissible sublineage of BA.2 in Western Visayas, bringing the nationwide total to 17.
The increase in cases in some Metro Manila areas is also expected as it has a “very dense” population, Solante said.
The rise in infections were not significant, according to Health Undersecretary and spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire.
Two cases of the BA.2.12.1 were detected in the capital region, who are relatives. Both were fully vaccinated and have since recovered.
Solante said the dominant BA.2 can again cause an increase in cases following “superspreader events” during the elections.
“We’re looking at the uptick of cases beginning 2nd week after the election, especially after the entry of sublineage BA.2.12.1,” he said.
“If there will be a rise in cases, it will last until June. If there is community transmission, cases will increase because of the highly transmissible sublineage BA.2.12.1,” he said.
As of Monday, some 68 million or 76.29 percent of the eligible 90 million population in the country have been fully vaccinated against the respiratory disease, the Department of Health said.
Of those with primary doses, 13.6 million have received their booster shots.
On Wednesday, the Philippines reported the lowest number of daily new COVID-19 cases since April 2020 with 103 new infections, which brings the nationwide caseload to 3,688,100.
The Philippines’ active case count also dropped to 2,241 the lowest reported so far this year.
A total 3,625,407 people have been counted as recoveries, while the death toll remained at 60,452, the DOH reported.
The regions with the greatest number of new cases in the past two weeks were the National Capital Region with 890 infections, Region 4-A with 258, and Region 3 with 240, the agency said.
The DOH said 22,742 individuals were tested, with 316 testing laboratories submitted data on May 17.
The bed occupancy rate in the country was 17.3 percent, with 5,362 beds occupied and 25,599 vacant.