A group of Metro Manila Mayors whose cities and municipality are not as severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic is asking the national government to initiate a less stringent quarantine rule in the National Capital region.
These mayors are asking for a modified quarantine system in Metro Manila, where cities thatr have very low incidents of Covid-19 presence be allowed to go on General Community Quarantine (GCQ) status, from the stricter enhanced Community Quarantine status the NCR is now ubnder.
Many sectors from NCR have expressed concern that the continued extended ECQ on all cities of the metro will soon take its toll on the already restless underprivileged sector. They believe its negative impact on the country’s economic base not to mention food security is inevitable.
These Mayors believe that a selective geographical approach in determining the cities to be placed on ECQ or GCQ is a better and more prudent approach to the situation. This will provide a better balance between addressing the pandemic and keeping a strong economic base with a continued source of essential goods.
Statisrics show that as of 24 April 2020, northern cities like Caloocan City only has 9.07 cases for every 100,000 people (“Attack Rate” or “AR”) despite having the third highest population in Metro Manila. Valenzuela has 12.18 while Navotas has 10.11. In the middle of the northern cluster is Malabon and Navotas with the lowest AR in Metro Manila at 8.18 and 10.11, respectively. Clearly, these cities should not be included in the same group of cities with case rates that are up to almost 20 times higher.
Moving southward, cities like Las Piñas, Taguig and Muntinlupa evidently show lower case statistics with AR ranging from 20 to 24. Marikina in the east has an AR of 20.91. Las Piñas and Muntinlupa are gateways to Southern Luzon and Marikina is gateway to the East.
In terms of Case Fatality Rates (CFR), cities located in the south record some of the lowest CFR in NCR, with Las Piñas, Taguig and Muntinlupa plotting 4%, 5% and 8%, respectively. These figures are only a fraction of that for northern cities with a high of 18%. These cities also have low-medium AR. This just means that together with the relatively lower AR, the COVID-19 survival rates here are some of the best in NCR. In fact, Las Piñas has the best showing in containing the virus having the lowest CFR vis-à-vis a comparatively lower AR than the rest of NCR. Other cities with low CFRs include Makati and Pasay.
The same data show that cities located in the central part of NCR experience the highest concentration of COVID-19 cases like San Juan, which has the highest AR in Metro Manila at 157.25, Mandaluyong with 78.74, Parañaque with 55.96 and Makati with 51.28. The following cities have rather lower ARs than the four mentioned: Quezon City with 34.48, Pasig with 33.87, Pasay with 33.63, Pateros with 30.88 and Manila with 29.93.
Despite fairly lower ARs, Quezon City and Manila, with 1,105 and 579 infections, respectively, have the highest number of confirmed cases in NCR. With the inclusion of Pateros, Pasay and Pasig, these nine (9) cities with the highest number of COVID- 19 cases comprise 70% of the total confirmed cases in NCR or 3,396 in absolute terms, according to the 24 April 2020 DOH COVID-19 Tracker.
One of the factors that may have contributed to such numbers are the unhampered mobility due to the geographic locations of these cities. Major business hubs like the Makati CBD and Ortigas Center, which are located at the joint boundaries of Pasig, Mandaluyong and Quezon City, rely on the free ingress and egress of employees from other Metro Manila cities working in companies located therein.
Owing to its population, land mass and number of cases, Quezon City also experienced the highest number of deaths (86) among Metro Manila cities and likewise has the highest number of hospital admissions.
Given the statistics above, NCR should not be allowed to be on a standstill. It should be considered that “off-center” cities can and should play the role in jumpstarting the economy. Note that it is in the “off-center” cities where major critical enterprises and manufacturing facilities are located. In addition, these “off-center” cities have access to major highways and provincial markets. As cases in point, Navotas and Malabon are the fishing capital of NCR which is vital to sustain food supply in NCR and major parts of Luzon; Valenzuela is a manufacturing hub; and Caloocan is the gateway to the North and home to businesses and warehouses.
A different set of considerations like the ability to safely produce and mobilize essential goods and services for these cities should also be studied and examined in the relaxation of quarantine or possible gradual lifting in the days and weeks to come. As 70% of Philippine GDP comes from NCR, Calabarzon and Central Luzon, the country risks losing 70% of the GDP if partial lockdown is notimplemented in these areas.
A second look on the coverage of the extended ECQ is necessary and vital. It has to be further evaluated based on each city’s management of the pandemic. The quarantine in some cities will simply need to be lifted ahead of the others to avert irreversible adverse effects on the national supply chain to be specific and the economy in general.
*Cases per 100,000population (Attack Rate or AR)
**Deaths / Total Cases (Case Fatality Rate or CFR)