The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may consider pausing again in its last policy meeting for the year, especially if inflation decelerates further and the peso remains stable, an economist said over the weekend.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said in a report the BSP could also match the next Federal Reserve rate decision on Dec. 13, 2023 to maintain healthy interest rate differentials to help support/stabilize the peso exchange rate, import prices and overall inflation.
The BSP’s Monetary Board will holds its next policy meeting on Dec. 14, 2023.
“A pause on local policy rates [is] also a possibility, especially if the peso exchange rate is relatively stable, global crude oil prices continue the easing trend, and headline inflation eases further towards the BSP’s inflation target of 2 percent to 4 percent,” Ricafort said.
The BSP on Nov. 16 kept the overnight borrowing rate steady at 6.5 percent amid the slowdown in inflation in October and the stronger gross domestic product expansion in the third quarter.
Inflation in October slowed to a three-month low of 4.9 percent from 6.1 percent in September, pulled down by slower increases in the prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages.
Meanwhile, the third-quarter GDP growth of 5.9 percent from 4.3 percent in the second quarter supported the view that the country’s medium-term growth prospects remained largely intact, even as pent-up demand continued to diminish in the near term.
The BSP raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent in an off-cycle move on Oct. 26 to rein in inflation.
Ricafort said since the start of 2023, the peso slightly appreciated on a year-to-date basis by 0.7 percent and is currently among the best performers in Asia. It closed at 55.38 on Friday.