The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said Friday the policy-making Monetary Board approved a new set of 2023 and 2024 balance of payments (BOP) projections.
It now expects a BOP surplus of $1.1 billion in 2023 and $400 million in 2024. The new set of BOP projections incorporates latest available data and developments, it said.
“For 2023, the overall BOP is seen to settle to a surplus position as the latest current account forecast remains broadly unchanged while the financial account has been revised upward,” the BSP said.
“While the overall BOP is projected to register a surplus, the current account is expected to remain in deficit driven by the persistent trade-in-goods gap despite the recent contraction in goods imports due mainly to easing global commodity prices,” it said.
The BSP expects goods exports to register a decline in 2023, unchanged from the previous projection, amid the slowdown in external demand.
It said the country’s current account deficit is attenuated by the stronger-than-expected improvements in travel receipts and the sustained resilience in BPO revenues and remittances.
“The lifting of the COVID 19 as a global health emergency by the World Health Organization in May 2023 further hastened the recovery of the tourism industry while the demand for BPO services remains upbeat as companies opt to use the outsourcing and global services model to drive cost-cutting initiatives. The projected inflows of foreign direct investments have been kept unchanged while that of foreign portfolio investments have been revised downward consistent with an overall subdued investment climate,” it said.
The BSP said that in 2024, the overall BOP is projected to retain its surplus position, albeit lower than the earlier forecast.
“This reflects the estimated narrower current account gap for next year as well as the slightly lower than previously projected non-resident investment inflows. The foreseen improvement in the current account balance is supported largely by the upward revision in the growth forecast for travel receipts as well as the stable expansion of BPO revenues and OF remittances,” it said.