Health officials said a six-week modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) coupled with an enhanced COVID-19 response could lead to a lower number of active cases in Metro Manila by the end of September.
Using a modeling tool, the DOH laid out several scenarios and their projected active cases:
* Two-week ECQ followed by four-week MECQ combined with the current levels of vaccination, case isolation, and compliance to health protocols = 66,403 cases by Aug. 31 and 269,694 cases by Sept. 30
* Six-week MECQ combined with the current COVID-19 response = 71,255 cases by Aug. 31 and 330,079 cases by Sept. 30
* Six-week MECQ combined with an improved COVID-19 response = 83,921 cases by Aug. 31 and 152,776 cases by Sept. 30
* Four-week MECQ followed by a two-week GCQ (general community quarantine) combined with an improved COVID-19 response = 83,921 cases by Aug. 31 and 158,489 cases by Sept. 30
The DOH said, however, that the projections were not cast in stone.
“The latest projections suggest that the best-case scenario or the least number of active cases in the NCR is seen when there is an improvement in the vaccination, shortening the interval between symptom onset and isolation to at most six days, and compliance with the minimum public health standards (MPHS),” the DOH said.
“We can further lower… the projected active cases in NCR if there is improved adherence to MPHS, better case detection to isolation time, and increased vaccination coverage,” it also said.
Metro Manila was under ECQ, the strictest lockdown classification, from Aug. 6 to 20. It was downgraded to MECQ along with the province of Laguna on Aug. 21.
Under ECQ, only essential trips and essential industries such as food and medicine are allowed to operate.
Under MECQ, indoor and al fresco dine-in services are still prohibited.
Personal care services including beauty salons, beauty parlors, barbershops, and nail spas are likewise not allowed.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday said the prolonged enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in certain areas does not work.
Duque’s comment was made when he said that he had to leave the Go Negosyo forum earlier than the rest of the participants due to an emergency meeting, GMA News reported.
“I have an emergency meeting with DOH (Department of Health) regional directors of Region 7 (Central Visayas) and Northern Mindanao because despite the prolonged ECQ, there seems to be no improvement,” Duque said
“It is really troubling, to say the least,” Duque said.
Iloilo City, Iloilo province, Cagayan de Oro City and Gingoog in Misamis Oriental were placed under ECQ from July 16 to Aug. 7.
Dr. Alethea de Guzman of DOH followed up Duque’s pronouncement by disclosing that 42 percent of COVID-19 cases in the country are of the more infectious Delta variant.
This is a significant increase from 6 percent in June.
Some 12.8 million Filipinos are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 so far.
However, this is way below the target of vaccinating 76.3 million by the end of the year to achieve herd immunity.
Meanwhile, the Palace assured the public that residents affected by the two-week ECQ in Metro Manila who have yet to receive the cash aid can still get financial assistance despite the new MECQ status.
Presidential spokesman Harry Roque said the distribution of cash aid to affected families under ECQ will continue even after the quarantine status was shifted to a less strict MECQ.
“There is no truth to reports that those who were not able to receive the cash aid will not anymore get the said assistance because the ECQ period had already lapsed,” Roque said.
“As long as you haven’t received the cash aid despite the downgrade to MECQ, you will still get the assistance that was intended for the ECQ period,” he added.
The target beneficiaries of the cash aid in NCR are the low-income individuals and families identified by the LGUs, who are physically residing, permanently or temporarily, or present in the city or municipality under ECQ, at the time of the ECQ declaration.
President Duterte approved the recommendation of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases to place Metro Manila and Laguna under MECQ from Aug. 21 until Aug. 31.
Each qualified resident in NCR may receive cash assistance worth P1,000 or a maximum of P4,000 per household.
LGUs were given 15 days to complete the distribution of the financial assistance.
However, they were allowed an extension in case they were not able to finish in time due to the challenges brought about by the pandemic.
The city of Caloocan said it has completed the distribution of P1.34 billion in cash assistance from the national government.
During the 12-day distribution, a total of 402,835 families received cash assistance in Caloocan, the first city in Metro Manila to complete the distribution of the total national government allocation for its residents.