"We should think very carefully about our holiday plans."
A team of researchers tracking the COVID-19 pandemic notes that the reproduction rate of the novel coronavirus continues to go up in Metro Manila.
This is cause for concern because the reproduction rate is the average number of people who can be infected by one person in a susceptible population, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). A value higher than 1.0 indicates that the pandemic is spreading.
As of Dec. 11, the reproduction rate was at 0.99, the University of the Philippines-OCTA Research Team says. This was up from 0.88 in November, 0.90 on Dec. 1, 0.94 on Dec. 5 and 0.96 on Dec. 10. It is almost certain to breach 1.0 in the following days.
The OCTA team suggests the increase in the coronavirus reproduction rate can be attributed to the fact that more people are going outside their homes.
“It looks like this is the increase due to the holiday mobility. The upward trend is real but it is not necessarily permanent and this trend is reversible,” said Guido David, a member of the team.
Any visit to a mall quickly confirms this observation, as shoppers ignore social distancing, wear their face shields like visors, pour into crowded stores, all in the name of the tradition of gift-giving during the holiday season.
And while the government has warned time and again against Christmas and New Year’s parties for fear of a resurgence of COVID-19, chances are there will be many who ignore such warnings, driven by lockdown fatigue and the desire to socialize.
But those among us who plan to celebrate with people outside their households should take to heart the warning from WHO, that Christmas celebrations could turn to tears if people fail to keep up their guard against COVID-19 during the festive season.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says the number of deaths in the coronavirus pandemic was surging and urged people to think very carefully about their holiday season plans.
“The festive season is a time to relax and celebrate but… celebration can very quickly turn to sadness if we fail to take the right precautions,” he told a press conference.
“As you prepare to celebrate over the coming weeks, please, please consider your plans carefully. If you live in an area with high transmission, please take every precaution to keep yourselves and others safe.
“That could be the best gift you could give – the gift of health.”