"We need a slow but sure economic recovery."
The pandemic has produced one of its most telling effects on the economy. The unemployment rate jumped to a record high of 17.7 percent in April, translating into 7.3 million jobless Filipinos in the labor force and surpassing the 10.3 percent rate during the 1998 recession.
The COVID-19 pandemic has quickly reversed the country's employment figures in just a matter of two months. The data is not surprising. Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello III has conceded that the lockdown from March to May, the period for job hunting by fresh graduates, put the labor force in a standstill as two-thirds of the economy is shut down.
In a different perspective, the Philippine Statistics Authority said the employment rate in April this year fell to 82.3 percent from 94.7 percent in January and from 94.9 percent in April last year.
The imposition of a Luzon-wide lockdown forced hundreds of thousands of establishments to temporarily close or adopt flexible work arrangements, affecting millions of workers both at home and overseas.
The grim unemployment data clearly suggests that the economy is contracting after decades of uninterrupted growth. The economy is not poised to rebound until the last quarter of the year, or after more business establishments reopen.
Stimulus programs are critical to help the economy recover and generate jobs that were lost during the lockdown period. Infrastructure will remain key in the expansion of the gross domestic product. The Duterte administration must resume major infrastructure projects like rail, roads and airports to ensure the sustainability of the country's economic growth and lower the ranks of the unemployed.
The full reopening of the economy, especially the services sector, will be the key to recovery. The Philippine economy can rebound by as much as 9 percent in 2021, depending on a stimulus package from the state. Private economists agree that economic activity may pick up in July, when the government dismantles the lockdown in most of the country.
But there should be no rush in reopening the economy. Health protocols must be observed at all times to ensure a slow but sure economic recovery.