"How easily the world can be made to fall apart under the weight of online half-truths."
"How easily the world can be made to fall apart under the weight of online half-truths."As the COVID-19 virus epidemic continues to run its course, a major casualty—though not yet a fatality—has been the economic growth prospects of our country. The latest consensus pegs us to a lower growth rate this year of 6 percent or slightly less, which is materially below the rosy pre-virus forecasts of as high as 6.5 or even 7 percent.
One outlier is a lot more pessimistic, though. Nomura, the Japanese financial giant, has put out a worst case for the Philippines of growth as low as 4.7 percent this year. This is based on a number of key assumptions:
• That the disease still isn’t contained by April;
• That China suffers a second round of infection nearly as bad as the first round (from which it already seems to be recovering)
• That the global fear factor runs “extremely high”
As with any outlier scenario, the assumptions seem to be unlikely.
An earlier model devised by JP Morgan projects that, even in the worst case, the global epidemic will reach its peak by no later than middle of March. In China itself which has suffered thousands of deaths, a lot more people are now recovering and going home, and the rate of new infection is dropping—thanks of course to the draconian restrictions that can be imposed by a one-party state. Here, as of writing, we’ve had exactly two cases of local transmission, both of them still alive.
What’s noteworthy is the importance assigned by Nomura to the “fear factor.” Abroad, it’s just beginning to take hold on one country after another, in a contagion almost as bad as the disease itself. Here at home, we’re responding with our usual equanimity—though that, like anything else in this unpredictable situation, could well change, too.
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Over the weekend, the President heeded the advice of his Health Department and declared a nationwide state of public emergency due to the COVID-19 virus. The country’s health alert status was downgraded to Code Red, sub-level 1. It sounds ominous, and as of writing we were still awaiting what exactly that alert status will mean for our daily lives.
But the epidemiology of this virus is a lot less threatening than SARS, or MERS, or even garden-variety influenza which regularly kills a lot more people. First you run a chance of being exposed (which ought to go down a lot once the DOH restrictions are imposed). If exposed, then you run a 20 percent chance of being infected. If infected, then your chance of dying is just 2 percent.
None of this is meant to gainsay the advice of experts, especially international agencies like WHO. The everyday precautions we should take are few and easy to remember: Wash hands regularly, avoid touching your face, minimize physical contact with others. In the Catholic church where I serve, lay ministers who’ve already been instructed to give communion by hand were just recently also instructed to start wearing face masks.
Common sense is fine, but we’re talking now about something else. What we object to are the heights of panic and paranoia being stoked by social media. One online commentator we respect even called for potentially indefinite closure of all work, all schools, all churches. What this will do to our already pressured economy, or to our abysmal school test scores, can only be imagined.
It only reinforces my suspicion that the guy behind this flood of unfiltered information that daily assaults us from a fallen world—and I refer to the guy downstairs, not upstairs—is rubbing his diabolical hands with glee at how easily the world can be made to fall apart under the weight of online half-truths and manufactured fear. Of all people, Christians—especially Catholic Christians—ought to know better.
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It's disheartening how the modern adherents of a religion whose earliest converts were regularly fed to the lions have become so weak-kneed on this issue. They should have listened last Saturday to the homily of our Scalabrinian guest priest, Father Paolo from Brazil, which I will shamelessly plagiarize here.
The first admonition to us in our current plight comes from the Gospel account of Jesus’ Transfiguration. When His accompanying disciples are prostrated in fear after hearing the booming voice of God from the cloud, Jesus gently comforts them, “Rise, and do not be afraid” (Mt 17: 1-9). This is also a general injunction to the faithful not to be fearful, especially of a world that, like us, was only created.
The second injunction, in Paul’s second letter to Timothy, his convert and companion, was intended to lift the morale of their Christian communities, as Paul approached what he knew was the end of his life. “Bear your share of hardship for the gospel with the strength that comes from God” (2 Tm 1: 8-10). It reminds us that the strength with which we can overcome our fear comes only from God, the Creator of the created world.
The third passage, from the Old Testament first reading, assures us of the rewards that await those who bear their hardship and resist fear. “I will bless you,” says the Lord. “I will bless those who bless you and curse those who curse you” (Gn 12: 1-4). As more excitable parishioners in other countries go so far as to actually close down their churches because of their fear of the virus, it would do us well to reflect instead upon the rewards God has reserved for those who keep faith with Him and trust in His goodness.
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