“One option worth considering is to explore the possibility for a more permanent basing agreement with the Americans”
This is supposed to be the season to be merry and peace but the tension in the WPS is not cooling down.
Instead, it continues to simmer, prompting PBBM to say we need a paradigm shift in handling the situation.
The Chinese state media continues to warn and accuse us of wanting to provoke conflict in the WPS. They even accused us of bringing an outsider which is, of course, the United States into the conflict.
In the last ramming incident, the Chinese wanted to file a protest against our supply ships for alleged dangerous maneuvers.
But since China does not recognize the authority of any third party to settle disputes, where will the protest be filed?
The Chinese Coast Guard?
They probably saw the absurdity of the accusation and simply kept quiet.
It would, however, be good if China would be willing to submit the dispute to a third party for judgment like the International Court of Justice, with the proviso that both countries abide by whatever verdict is reached.
That way, the constant confrontations in the high seas can be avoided.
One way to defuse the rising tension is to talk as China has been suggesting.
Unfortunately, China has always preferred bilateral talks to multilateral probably to better control the narrative.
And since China has stated it would defend its nine-dash-line proclamation with all its might and considers the 2016 Arbitral Ruling as void and illegal, one wonders why it still wants to talk to us at all.
Perhaps, it should instead explain to the world why it signed and ratified the 1982 UNCLOS treaty in the first place but now chooses to ignore its provisions.
Under these conditions, is there any incentive for us to even consider talking to China or take any other non-confrontational option in as much that China has taken an unbending position?
Maybe we should take a page on how Vietnam is dealing with China.
The Chinese President recently made a widely publicized visit to Vietnam to counter the US President’s visit to enhance and promote what their joint communique said was their shared future. Notwithstanding the territorial dispute between the two countries, they seem willing to put that dispute in the back burner and concentrate on areas that would promote their common interests.
This is obviously in the area of trade.
Unlike us, Vietnam has no Defense Treaty with the US, and therefore may not feel strong enough to confront the might of China by itself and has decided instead to bide its time until it is strong enough. Since prudence is the better part of valor, Vietnam may have simply decided to deal with China so as not to disrupt its remarkable economic growth.
Vietnam also fought China three times.
Two in the SCS and the other was a short land war in 1979.
These skirmishes resulted in many Vietnamese military casualties in the SCS.
If Vietnam can live with that and still willing to trust China, maybe we should take another look to see if we can learn something.
Since war is not an option to PBBM as he has stated many times, what would the country be willing to try?
We seem to be putting a lot of weight on joint patrols but unless these patrols will be authorized to intervene if our Ayungin supply missions are harassed, the effort will probably not drive away the Chinese militia vessels and Chinese Coast Guard from the WPS.
Besides, intervention could trigger the conflict that we are trying to avoid.
Some people might not favor the Vietnam approach, but the way things stand now, it is worth studying because it can also buy us time.
And as suggested in an earlier piece, one option worth considering is to explore the possibility for a more permanent basing agreement with the Americans.
There is nothing intrinsically wrong with sitting down with the Chinese to talk.
Like Vietnam, we can also explore mutually beneficial economic agreements without giving in to any Chinese demand with regards to our sovereign rights.
May the New Year bring us continued peace.