The Philippines may miss the 2023 exports target of $127 billion set under the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) amid global headwinds.
The Board of Investments (BOI) said goods and services exports would likely grow 5 percent to $102.9 billion in 2023 from $98 billion in 2022, faster than the previous year but slower by 23.4 percent than the target set by the Export Development Council (EDC).
“Exports are improving, year-on-year, but it will be difficult to achieve the targets set by the council under the PEDP,” said BOI managing director Ceferino Rodolfo.
BOI and Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) director Bianca Sykimte said the EDC crafted the PEDP at a time when there were no geopolitical issues, inflation was tempered and China was on the brink of recovery.
“The PEDP was crafted in mid-2021 to mid-2022. The projections did not account the slowdown in the international trading environment,” she said.
She said there were calls to review the 2023 to 2028 PEDP to align projections to more realistic goals and set new guidelines for the export community.
The EDC usually recalibrates export projections based on the trading environment. The recent PEDP projections were not yet adjusted.
The BOI expressed hope merchandise exports would expand by at least 1 percent while service exports would rise 5 percent this year.
The BOI noted that Philippine exports, from January to August 2023, were services-driven, mostly anchored on the revival of travel.
It said the recovery of tourism provided impetus for services exports to rebound.
Services exports went up by 22 percent in the first six months of 2023, while merchandise exports were down by 6.6 percent to $47.8 billion in the first eight months.
The BOI said that compared to other Asian neighbors, the Philippines was ahead of the pack with a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percent on goods export in August.
China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam all registered a decline in exports in August.