Clearly, these are dangerous times, and the Philippines, by geographical proximity and its own active alliances, would surely be embroiled in the conflict
Last August 30, I was invited to speak before a forum sponsored by the De la Salle University’s School of International Studies, on the subject “Philippines -Taiwan Relations: Challenges and Opportunities in the Evolving Regional Security EnvironmentA.”
The audience, aside from the DFA Spokesperson, retiring Ambassador Teresita Daza, UP Prof. Jay Batongbacal, Rear Admiral Rommel Ong (ret), Taiwan’s new resident representative, Wallace Chow, other officials of our national security establishment, and political science and foreign studies academicians were invited by Prof. Renato de Castro, who also moderated the event, aside from presenting a brief history of the conflicts surrounding the WPS/SCS issues.
Taiwan sent no less than Chancellor Chung Kwang Tien, former resident representative to India and other countries, and currently the head of the Foreign Service Institute of its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who flew in just a few hours before the conference.
The Taiwanese chancellor spoke about the persistent threats to the island nation of its powerful neighbor, the People’s Republic of China under President Xi Jinping, and called for mutual cooperation with democratic nations around the world, particularly the Indo-Pacific region, to preserve the peace and guarantee the security and present status of Taiwan, which, as he rightfully said, impacts on the Philippines, Taiwan’s closest neighbor to its south, which is just about 200 kilometers distant from Batanes.
For my part, as former chairman and resident representative of the Manila Economic and Cultural Office from the start of the Duterte administration in 2016 up to July 2021, when I resigned because of active participation in the last elections, I first discussed the challenges to generating better economic cooperation and investments from our prosperous neighbor.
In various trade conferences which MECO and the DTI’s Taiwan trade counsellor which we supervise, we presented the Philippines as a safe haven for Taiwanese investments, with DTI Undersecretary and Board of Investments Governor Perry Rodolfo making several trips to the Taiwan capital to entice their businessmen to invest in our country.
Banco de Oro’s economist Jonathan Ravelas, along with heads of Clark and Subic ecozones, as well as those of the Semi-Conductors Industries (SEIPI) were consistent resource persons in our forums.
This was to take advantage of the Taiwan government’s announced New Southbound Policy which seeks greater cooperation with its southern neighbors in the Indo-Pacific.
MECO succeeded in signing a new bilateral trade agreement with Taiwan in 2017, the first in ASEAN, and by November of the same year, to enhance tourism exchanges, the Taiwan government allowed visa-free entry for Filipinos for a 14-day stay, a policy which has been extended through the years, save for the pandemic period, and which has just been recently renewed.
But in the investment events we sponsored, the most frequent problems addressed to us included the high cost of power in the country, traffic and port congestion, changes in rules and regulations, taxation, as well as too many holidays, including national and locally declared “special” holidays which disrupt production schedules and add to the costs of doing business.
These. I explained, were the reasons why most FDIs, not only coming from Taiwan but elsewhere, prefer Vietnam and Thailand, despite physical proximity to the Philippines.
Not being a national security expert, I left the discussion of those to the other speaker and the participants in the open forum that followed.
My main concern when I was head of MECO was how to safely secure our 160,000 OFWs, plus other nationals in the event hostilities erupted between China and Taiwan.
Repatriation is going to be well nigh impossible, because unlike in the Middle East or North Africa, even in Ukraine, where our diplomats were able to transport Filipinos by land through friendly border nations, Taiwan is an island surrounded by waters which would be the theater of war in such an event.
The air corridors would likewise be dangerous for commercial aviation.
Were there enough underground shelters and safe building basements to house some 900,000 foreigners, mostly from Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, on top of Taiwan’s 23.4 million citizens?
How do we ensure enough food and other essentials should a present Cold War turn blistering hot, with bombs in the air and navies fighting in the waters of the Taiwan Strait and our very own Luzon Strait?
For our part, we created a reserve fund for a contingency such as this, growing it to some $400 million through the years, but, realistically, even this may not be enough to secure our nationals in the event of war.
Augmentation must come from the national government if the hostilities are prolonged.
The Taiwanese side is still doing an inventory of shelters, food and other essentials, and the logistics needed for such a massive operation as keeping the inhabitants safe and secure.
I then segued into my final statement that we should all strive for peace in Taiwan and the straits that surround the island, that both sides will realize that war is a lose-lose situation, especially since most of the protagonists come from the same race.
Our national security establishment and our president has expanded the EDCA to include four new basing agreements, three of which are proximate to Taiwan. Recently, the probability of adding more EDCA bases is being discussed.
The reasoning for this is that these would be deterrents to war, and we could invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty should China include us in their hostile actions against what they consider an integral part of their country, even if Taiwan does not agree to it.
The forthcoming presidential elections in Taiwan, scheduled for 13 January 2024, in which the incumbent vice-president, William Lai is the DPP’s candidate, will give us an inkling of whether the Cold War would turn hot.
Arrayed against the DPP are the Koumintang’s candidate, former police director general and New Taipei City mayor Hou You-ih, Taiwan People’s Party’s candidate, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, and latecomer, independent Terry Gou, who just resigned as chairman of the huge Hon Hai/Foxconn business empire which is the manufacturing arm of Apple electronics.
At present, surveys show the DPP candidate with a widening lead, but then again, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings.
And even if the DPP wins again, will they come to a mutually acceptable compromise to preserve peace across the Taiwan Strait, and will China find it in its interest to preserve the peace?
Many observers say that Xi Jin-ping’s belligerence could be triggered by the war preparations of the US and its allies, as well as domestic economic problems in the mainland that could hasten military adventurism.
Then again, whether the US of A’s announced challenge to China’s rising military power will get it to be actively involved in a hot war would depend on the directions of their foreign policy after January 2025, when the winner in next year’s election defines its foreign policy towards the region.
Clearly, these are dangerous times, and the Philippines, by geographical proximity and its own active alliances, would surely be embroiled in the conflict.