Moody’s Analytics, a research unit that operates independently of Moody’s Investors Service, said Monday Philippine inflation is expected to rise in August 2023 from the 16-month low of 4.7 percent in July.
It said in its Asia Pacific Economic Preview for the week released on Monday Philippine inflation likely accelerated to 4.8 percent. The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the official August 2023 inflation data on Sept. 5.
Moody’s Analytics did not provide the reasons for its projection, but said it would be within the 4.8 percent to 5.6 percent projection by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for the month.
The BSP said last week the August inflation was driven by higher prices of rice and other agricultural commodities amid weather disturbances, sharp rise in fuel prices and increased transport fares and toll rates.
Inflation eased to 4.7 percent in July from a peak of 8.7 percent in January 2023.
The July inflation was the sixth consecutive month of deceleration in the headline inflation and the lowest since March 2022’s inflation of 4 percent. It was also slower than 6.4 percent registered a year ago.
Inflation in the first seven months averaged 6.8 percent, higher than the 2023 target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona said earlier there was still room to increase the prevailing interest rates, when necessary, without negatively impacting the economy.
Remolona said the third pause in interest rate adjustments by the BSP’s Monetary Board on Aug. 17, 2023 was a “prudent” move.