The observation by some legislators the Philippines is on track to lead its Southeast Asian neighbors in economic growth and jobs creation in the months ahead whips up high emotions and expectations in this country of 114 million people.
But there are alarm bells that scathing El Niño weather conditions could pose some consequential peril, according to House of Representatives Minority Leader and 4Ps party-list Rep. Marcelino Libanan.
“Government should spare no effort in mitigating El Niño’s adverse impact on irrigation water supply and farm harvests, which could put an unwanted upward pressure on food prices,” Libanan said on the eve of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s second State of the Nation Address Monday.
Earlier on, the country;s Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) issued its first El Niño advisory as the Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization warned of surging temperatures across large parts of the world after the weather pattern emerged in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.
“We are now really sure [that El Niño is here] because we are certain about the warming of ocean surfaces. We are not seeing any scenario where this would not affect us,” Esperanza Cayanan, deputy director of Pagasa told a news conference.
There are observations investments and employment are on the rise, consumption spending on the upswing, public and private construction revving up, and even foreign tourists coming back in droves.
Libanan remarked: “It would seem the President’s overseas promotional trips in his first year in office, particularly to Japan, Singapore and the United States, are starting to bear fruit in generating new investments.”
According to the Manila-based Asian Development Bank, the Philippines’ gross domestic product is projected to grow at 6.0 percent this year—the highest in Southeast Asia—with Vietnam expanding by 5.8 percent, Indonesia by 4.8 percent, Malaysia by 4.7 percent, Thailand by 3.5 percent and Singapore by 1.5 percent.
Analysts have also said the country’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3 percent in May this year from 6.0 percent in May 2022 and 4.5 percent in April 2023, based on the Labor Force Survey results released by the Philippines Statistics Authority on July 7.
Weather observers have noted El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific and will persist until the first quarter of 2024, showing signs of strengthening in the next months.
Pagasa itself said: “El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country. “However, over the western part of the country, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected.”
When the Philippines last endured a full-blown El Niño event in 2019, vast parts of the country, plus Metro Manila, reeled from a drought that caused widespread water shortages and farm losses, after dams and lakes that supply potable and irrigation water experienced a massive decline in rainfall.
Hopes are high the country will be able to ride out the menace of El Niño.