With the likelihood of a transition to El Niño in the third quarter this year – July-August-September – the government has started bracing for this weather phenomenon, last experienced in 1997-1998.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned the country, a basically agricultural economy, may experience below normal rainfall in the coming months.
And the days are warning the population – with 33 degrees C or 91.4 degrees F on the average during the past few days including today.
Meanwhile, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Department of Agriculture has to hurdle structural challenges and adopt new technology in its operations to enhance farm production in the Philippines with the challenge of El Niño.
Mr. Marcos, also the agriculture secretary, admitted the department has been busy carrying out emergency measures designed to lower commodity prices, citing the need to consolidate the assets of farmers.
“What we are doing is we have coordination with the CDA (Cooperative Development Authority) to strengthen cooperatives so we can bring the policies to farmers faster,” the Chief Executive said.
The strongest and most devastating in the past almost half a century was the 1982-1983 El Niño, perhaps the worst in recorded history.
During that period, trade winds not only collapsed – they reversed and its effects were long lasting as well.
Twelve years later, a wave of warm water from the 1982 El Niño lived on in 1994, and measured only eight inches high and traveled about 8 kilometers an hour.
That caused weather-related disasters on almost every continent: Australia, Africa and Indonesia suffered droughts, dust storms, and brush fires. Peru was hit with the heaviest rainfall in recorded history –11 feet in areas where 6 inches was the norm.
Some rivers carried 1,000 times their normal flow.
During the past two decades, the Philippines has experienced unusual droughts and floods due to the climatological phenomena called El Nino which occurs approximately once every five years, while La Nina is less frequent.
The El Niño in the 80s was blamed for between 1,300 and 2,000 deaths and more than $13 billion in damage to property and livelihoods.
During this period, the thermocline off the South American coast dropped to about 500 feet.
On September 24, in just 24 hours, sea-surface temperatures along the coastal village of Paita, Peru shot up 7.2 degrees F.
El Niño can deplete water supplies and cause significant losses in agricultural production.
In 2019, Metro Manila and neighboring provinces experienced water shortage as the El Niño contributed to a massive decline in rainfall. The damage brought by the phenomenon to agriculture reached around $8 billion.
“We have a window for anticipation. One good anticipatory action is capturing what is available during the rainy season,” Thelma Cinco, weather services chief of PAGASA’s climatology and agrometeorology division, said in a briefing.