The World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday backed the Department of Health’s (DOH) warning that the country may experience another surge in COVID-19 infections by mid-May if minimum public health standards are ignored.
WHO representative to the Philippines Dr. Rajendra Yadav said he had seen the DOH projections that a 50 percent decrease in compliance with minimum public health standards could result in 25,000 to 60,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by next month.
“If we relax our guard, if we relax our defenses, then yes, it’s possible to get to those numbers,” Yadav told a press briefing Monday.
Based on its models, the DOH said a 20 percent drop in health standards could lead to 34,788 active COVID-19 cases by mid-May. Of these, 564 could be classified as severe and 267 would be critical.
A 30 percent decrease in compliance might increase the cases further, possibly to as high as 300,000 over the same period, the DOH said.
Yadav said “only time will tell” whether there will be a surge again, considering the increased mobility of the public especially during the Holy Week.
“Whether this social mixing and increased mobility during Easter will cause increasing cases depends on whether people wore masks and avoided crowds and poorly ventilated places. Also, whether we are testing enough people,” he said.
Yadav also called on the government not to rely too much on the number of cases but rather focus on increasing their COVID-19 vaccination drive to get more than 70 percent of its target population inoculated against the viral disease.
He also appealed to Filipinos to urge the local chief executives themselves to ramp up the vaccination especially in areas with low vaccination rate, saying “no one is safe unless everyone is safe.”
In contrast to the original target of fully vaccinating at least 90 million Filipinos by the end of President Rodrigo Duterte’s term on June 30, 2022, the National Vaccination Operations Center (NVOC) chairperson Dr. Myrna Cabotaje said on Sunday that they would already be happy if they reach 77 million by then.
Based on the latest data, at least 66.7 million Filipinos are already fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Meanwhile, some 12.5 million have received their first booster dose.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recently granted the emergency use authorization for the second booster shot for the senior citizens, the immunocompromised, and frontline health workers.
The Philippines recorded 195 additional cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, the lowest daily tally in nearly four months since December last year.
This drove the total caseload to 3.683 million, which includes 3.6 million recoveries, and 59,969 deaths.
Meanwhile, the Department of Tourism on Monday urged authorities to take “appropriate action” against the local government of Malay in Aklan after Boracay Island reportedly went beyond its carrying capacity during the Holy Week.
“We are asking the mayor to explain because he is answerable to this. It’s really wrong,” Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat said.
She said she is counting on the Department of the Interior and Local Government and Department of Environment and Natural Resources to take action for alleged violation of health and safety protocols.
“Considering that the local government unit is still under Alert Level 1 status, strict implementation of measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections must be considered including the ideal volume of tourists within a given period,” Puyat said.
Aklan is under COVID-19 Alert Level 1 until April 30.
On April 14 and 15, the number of tourists that arrived in the world-famous destination reached 21,252 and 22,519, respectively, she said.
The recommended daily threshold for Boracay Island is 19,215.
“The carrying capacity to protect the island from over-tourism after rehabilitation of 19,215 per day was not even breached pre-pandemic,” Puyat said. “So, it’s a concern that it has reached over 21,000 with the pandemic.”
The local government of Malay has yet to respond to the issue, although Interior Secretary Eduardo Año said he will be issuing an advisory and warning to it for its compliance.
“We must adhere to the defined carrying capacity of Boracay which is set at 19,215. The LGU should implement it in order to ensure the safety and health of tourists and residents; and protect the environment,” Año said.
The DOH said on Monday that 664 or 11.5 percent of COVID-19 patients in hospitals were in severe and critical condition during the week from April 11 to 17.
The figure is lower than the previous week’s 707 severe and critical patients who comprised 12.6 percent of COVID-19 hospital admissions at the time.
The DOH said 450 out of 2,842 intensive care unit (ICU) beds for coronavirus patients were occupied nationwide.
The country recorded 1,674 new COVID-19 cases or an average of 239 per day, which is 12 percent lower than the cases reported from the previous week.
Of the additional infections during the week, one patient was classified as severe or critical.
During the past week, the DOH said it verified 200 more COVID-related fatalities, citing late encoding of death information.
At Monday’s briefing, Yadav said the country should avoid reaching endemicity.
“Endemic is not a great picture because many diseases are endemic. Like tuberculosis is endemic and it kills millions of people. Rather we have to aim for sustained suppression of COVID-19 pandemic,” Yadav said.
“We have to have enough resources to manage any surges. We have to prevent deaths and suffering. We have to avoid it becoming endemic. Even malaria, for example, is endemic in some countries and it kills millions too,” Yadav said.