"What might happen in the summit?"
"What might happen in the summit?"
The G-20 meeting scheduled near the end of this month is supposed to be a gathering of the richest and most economically advanced nations of the world. Though the attending leaders have their own strategy to advance their economies, there is degree of commonality in their approach to resolve their differences.
Unlike the previous summit of the G-20, the meeting to be held in Osaka, Japan will be attended by US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping.
However, the meeting of the two economic giants has overshadowed the purpose of the G-20, which is to secure a consensus on what plan of action should be taken on the basis of multilateralism. Trump, who is supposed to stand as the foremost proponent of economic multilateralism, has somewhat become odd. He now carries the flag of unilateralism and economic protectionism which is completely diametrical to the doctrine upon which the G-20 was founded.
The US media keeps on highlighting that the coming summit will tackle the pressing economic uncertainty caused by the US trade war with China. Trump particularly focuses on his possible meeting with President Xi. By that, it implies that the topic has shifted away from the agenda of the G-20 but in patching up the cracks that have affected the spirit of multilateralism.
While the political sloganeering of “America First” and “America Will be Great Again” may serve as elixir, (or boost his chances of seeking re-election), such patriotic invocation of nationalism and chauvinism has no place in the meeting. Political analysts are in a quandary whether to press hard their agenda of cementing economic cooperation in the wake of the Xi-Trump meeting which is to take place at the sideline of the conference.
It seems all are reserving their plans whether the two leaders will be able to reach an agreement or turn for the worse to force Trump to unleash more tariffs. Yet, even on this most basic logic in economics, Trump failed to discern that tariff is a tax on its own people beginning with the importers. Trade deficit happens because importers feel the exporting country offers them the lowest price. Maybe China will eventually suffer from decreased imports. But Trump failed to realize that the seller always had the advantage than the buyer.
Though somewhat perplexing, all seem not to openly discuss their plan or even adopt what they have already agreed in their preliminary meetings for fear it might unravel the truth that Trump is a spoiled brat to the occasion. Some even speculate that Trump purposely sought a meeting with Xi to impress it upon the world he is not alone in his crusade. Maybe Trump would be able to impress the attending leaders who know the brass tacks of the economic agenda, but it is apparent his position is paradoxically at odds with the goal of what the summit seeks to achieve, which is to advance to a higher level the progress and prosperity through cooperation and multilateralism.
Most of the member countries know that as the leading capitalist state, free enterprise cannot work alongside with economic protectionism and unilateralism. The summit has become inappropriate for it seems Trump has reduced the G-20 summit to technically endorsing his outlandish proposals. People who expected much from the meeting saw the deep crevices caused by the advocacy of Trump that serves to enhance his chances of winning the support of the American electorate.
Attending leaders who adhere to peaceful negotiations still give it the possibility of success. Maybe Trump can say his meeting with President Xi is a reaffirmation to bilateralism far from what the traditional and fixed system of multilateralism done through collective consensus. As one would put it, Trump would be acting wholly outside the rules of the G-20.
Like a brat, Trump is the one who refuses to observe proper decorum. Even the nagging problem of trade deficit, it is most doubtful whether his tactic of playing hardball in the negotiating table would work. Neither can Trump can pass on his problem of trade deficit to the G-20. Rather, trade deficit can only be resolved through negotiations or through war.
Somebody should inform Trump that trade deficit is not the result of robbery, swindling, machinations or other forms of underhanded tactic to outwit the other. It is in layman’s language the result of buying more than what one could earn. Specifically, trade deficit occurs when one country imports more than what it could sell or export. Let us not talk of other factors like comparative advantage, imposition of tariff barriers and trade sanction, violation of the principle of “most favored nation” clause, currency manipulation, credit and financing, etc. but just stick to the basic fact that trade is being carried out under an atmosphere of free and open trade.
Notably, US trade deficit has been going on and sadly has been accumulating through the years. The US used it to cover up their fast losing productivity. The withering of many factories and the loss of jobs is now being substituted by the importation of cheap products mainly from China; much of its production has now been diverted to the making of armaments. The high value of those produced in what US President Eisenhower called the “military industrial complex” is principally responsible for depriving the American workers of their productivity.
What is glaring that the US is the leading producer of armaments in the world and also the biggest seller. This has made the US the most powerful nation on earth yet vulnerable to the same weapon that could inflict mass destruction. It has more standing army than of the 29 member countries of NATO. Yet, power itself has become its own liability. It widened the area covered by its self-imposed international order, depleted much its resources, withered the morale of its soldiers and created more enemies than friends.
The US should appreciate the role played by China in filling up the vacuum left by many of its factories as a result in the shift to unproductive endeavours just to keep itself the most powerful nation on earth. The profit generated by the arms industry and the salary earned by those employed is no match to the income of the workers engaged in the production of food and all of their basic needs. The problem is that it equally skyrocketed the cost of services.
Trump should realize that one cannot force countries to keep on buying without it getting something in exchange. Such is plain and simple. Neither can the US skip the issue of negotiating with China while charging it of piracy or of committing other forms of illegal and immoral trade practices because the two are incompatible. The US should either go to court and specifically point out the violation and demand damages or negotiate on a fair, just and realistic terms.
rpkapunan@gmail.com