This is what advocates of federalism in our country like to call themselves, a name that conjures—for no reason at all—vague images of Mexican pistoleros in wide-brimmed sombreros trading gunfire with uniformed gringos in dusty Texas cowpoke towns from the turn of the last century.
Today’s Filipino federalistas are likewise engaged in a rhetorical exchange of fire with conservatives who believe that the Cory Constitution of 1987 was, like its namesake, a veritable gift from God, and that people who want to replace it are inviting us to “descend into hell” no less.
Unfortunately for the feds, the latest round appears to have been won by the Coryistas. In its latest quarterly survey conducted late March, Pulse Asia found that opposition to charter change had increased by a whopping 20 points to 64 percent, from only 44 percent two years ago in July 2016.
Over 70 percent of respondents had “little or no” knowledge of the federalist system being proposed, and 66 percent opposed a changeover. In fact, awareness of charter change increased only moderately the last two years, from 41 percent to 49 percent.
Many feds are wondering why such little awareness and support, considering that Duterte campaigned from day one on a platform of federalism. The answer is obvious: Duterte was campaigning on other issues as well that were much easier to understand.
The key one was the issue of drugs crime and corruption. Nobody else was talking as credibly as he was about it, with his homespun Dirty Harry image. This is a gut issue, and it’s what put him over the top.
Federalism, by comparison, is something that needs to be sat down and learned. I too was surprised to learn from the poll that the biggest lack of awareness and support was in Mindanao, which is not only Duterte’s home ground but also the biggest potential beneficiary from decentralizing government power away from Manila.
If even Mindanaoans are far from convinced, how much more the rest of the country, especially rich and populous regions like Greater Metro Manila which stand to lose from having to give up ascendancy and share their income with poorer regions?
It’s an eye-opener for Dutertistas who thought that they could just coast along on the President’s Teflon popularity. Now we’re seeing that the Teflon is neither universal nor immutable. As with any other reform of real consequence, charter change will still have to be won in a hard-fought battle for hearts and minds.
* * *
I see the same takeaway lesson—there’s no substitute for hard work—from the mixed picture presented by the latest economic news. The momentum is still with the President, but disturbing headwinds are building up. Let’s review the mixed bag:
Joblessness up—In its own quarterly survey last March, SWS found that joblessness has gone up to nearly 24 percent, the highest level since 2016. Nearly 11 million adults reported having no job in the last three months. Not surprisingly, the level of optimism about landing a job in the next 12 months also dropped, from a net score of +41 (“Excellent”) last December to a “Very good” score of +37.
The fact that March is graduation time, when a flood of new job seekers hits the market, offers only partial explanation. This spike in joblessness may well be just a one-time blip, but it may also indicate deeper cross-currents at work.
Contractualization—To his credit, Duterte stood his ground and refused to issue an EO on Labor Day that would have exceeded his powers to amend the Labor Code, no matter how good his intentions. This of course infuriated the leftists, whose vitriol when you cross them is just as remarkable as their silence when you take their side.
The battle over contractualization now shifts to Congress, which takes to populism like a duck to water. Now certainly isn’t the best time to impose irresponsible restrictions on the ability of employers to hire and fire—not with joblessness up, and at a time when we may need to create even more jobs to absorb all those OFWs who may be displaced because of rising tensions over their rights with Kuwait and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Scrapping rice quotas—Neda has already predicted that Duterte’s somewhat surprising order to take away NFA’s monopoly of rice imports and open it up to the private sector may bring down inflation by as much as a full percentage point, simply because rice has the second biggest weight (behind oil) in the country’s inflation basket.
So who would quarrel with such a rosy scenario? Well-meaning bureaucrats might, who still prefer rice self-sufficiency over rice security. So too would other bureaucrats with sleazier intentions, who don’t want to lose the money-making opportunities created by government monopoly of rice imports, or of any other economic activity for that matter.
Derailing TRAIN—Leftist party-lister Congressman Carlos Zarate wants to “truly reduce” the burden supposedly imposed on the poor by tax reform, by increasing the income tax exemption amount and repealing expanded VAT coverage and the new excise taxes now being levied on petroleum and on sweetened products.
In another instance of red-yellow affinity, LP Senator Bam Aquino also made similar noises about derailing TRAIN. But what would this do to all the infrastructure and social services projects that tax reform is supposed to fund in order to promote economic growth and the welfare of the poor? Not surprisingly, neither legislator has anything to say on this.
Cross-winds and cross-purposes all over the place. The next couple of months look to generate a lot more heat besides the standard sweatiness of summer.
Readers can write me at gbolivar1952@yahoo.com.