A multitude of questions has been asked about the future of the autonomous province of Catalonia ever since the holding of the referendum on Catalonian independence from Spain, but the question that matters above all others is, is Spain ever likely to let the populous northeastern province go?
The answer is No. There are two principal reasons for this negative prognosis. The first reason relates to Catalonia’s place in Spain’s scheme of things. The second has to do with the likely impact of a Catalonian breakaway on the political stability of countries – in Europe and elsewhere – with fragile ethnic structures.
Catalonia accounts for around 24 percent of Spain’s GDP (gross domestic product). Most of Spain’s major industries are centered on that province. The province’s capital, Barcelona, is arguably Spain’s most important city and its No. 1 port. It is difficult to imagine that the Spanish government would give up Catalonia willingly.
The second factor underlying Spain’s unwillingness to grant Catalonia independence is its desire to demonstrate solidarity with the countries that are experiencing separatist movements. These countries include Belgium (roughly half of whose population, the inhabitants of Wallonia, are Francophiles), the United Kingdom (whose Scottish component is seeking a second referendum on independence) and Italy (whose industrial North has repeatedly expressed a desire to separate from the agricultural Mezzogiorno, or South). The governments of these and other similarly placed countries fear that the grant of independence to Catalonia will serve as an encouragement to the separatist movements within their borders. Indeed, so conscious are the separatism-infected countries that the announcement of the pro-independence side’s victory in the first Catalonia referendum was quickly followed by a chorus of we-will-not-grant-recognition declarations from several Western European governments.
Truly, the loss of Catalonia would be a serious blow to the political stability of Spain, which has been facing an on-again-off-again separatist movement in the three Basque provinces (Alava, Biscay, Guipuzkoa) along the Bay of Biscay. Independence for Catalonia would probably lead to a resurgence of separatist activity among the Basques.
A successful Catalonian breakaway certainly would cause Spain to lose some prestige and esteem in the international community. The beautiful city of Barcelona is, after all, one of the jewels of the Mediterranean Sea. Apart from the political severances associated with decolonization, there have been only two instances in the post-World War II era where a territory has succeeded in breaking away from its mother country. Those were Singapore’s breakaway from the Federation of Malaya in 1965 and, a few years ago, South Sudan’s breakaway from Sudan.
Loss of part of its territory by a country is bad enough; it is worse when the lost territory is of great economic significance, as in the case of Catalonia. Spain losing Catalonia would be more or less like Germany losing Bavaria, or the US losing California, or Canada losing Ontario, or this country’s losing Metro Manila.
No self-respecting country would give up such territory without a bruising fight.
I have a great deal of respect for the Catalans, and I’m entirely sympathetic with their cause. But the foregoing discussion suggests that the world will not be seeing an independent Catalonia in the foreseeable future.