Government troops who already have their hands full fighting the ISIS-Maute terrorists in Marawi still have to contend with the communist New People’s Army.
Because of ambushes against government troops in various parts of the country—the latest, in North Cotabato, wounded five presidential security guards —President Rodrigo Duterte ordered a stop to the backchannel talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines/National Democratic Front.
And so once again peace talks turned into cease talks. The longest-running communist insurgency in Asia enters another stalemate in the on and off again negotiations. Government peace negotiators Jesus Dureza and Silvestre Bello were told by the President to suspend the talks being held in Oslo, Norway until the CPP can rein in its armed wing, the NPA, to stop attacks against government troops and extortion of business companies operating in the countryside.
The CPP’s Joma Sison, Luis Jalandoni and Fidel Agcaoili apparently have no control over the NPA. But what do you expect? The communist leaders have been in exile in the Netherlands for years while the NPA rebels are the ones actually carrying on the fight at home. Simply said, a revolution cannot be done by remote control. The CPP leaders and the NPA are actually comfortable living separate lives. Joma et al live the good life while in European exile. The NPA insurgents, on the other hand, have made a livelihood out of criminal activities in the guise of revolutionary ideology.
The government is in a bind. It has to talk to the Sison clique in exile because the NPA does not have any visible leader among the local insurgents. So how can the government talk directly to the NPA in order to marginalize and make Joma and company irrelevant?
Call me a pessimist but I don’t see the talks between the government and communist panels making any headway. There are just too many stumbling blocks like the rebels laying down their weapons and the role the government would give Sison, Jalandoni and Agcaoili in the event a settlement is reached. Appointing them to key positions like the departments of labor, agrarian reform and the National Housing Authority would politicize those government agencies. For sure, there will be protests from traditional politicians who expect to be appointed to these posts as part of the spoils of political victory after a presidential election.
Contrary to communist propaganda, the movement has not been able to proselytize and gain new recruits. The people see through the NPAs as mere bandits engaged in extortion, destruction of power lines and other forms of criminal activity.
Bringing Joma Sison and company to the negotiation table was initiated by Corazon Aquino when she was thrust to the presidency in the aftermath of the Edsa People Power uprising in February 1986. Cory appointed Ramon Mitra to head the government side in the effort to forge a peace settlement with Sison who was given safe passage to return to the Philippines from his exile in Utrecht, the Netherlands. Somehow, the talks failed and Sison returned to his comfort zone in the Netherlands.
The country has a succession of new presidents every six years but Sison, Jalandoni and Agcaoili who are in their late 70s are not getting any younger. They will most probably not see peace with the government in their lifetime. The harsh reality of it all is that while the CPP/NPA continue to wage war against the government, they have not won the battle for the hearts and minds of men. History is replete with stories of failed and successful revolutions.
The battle for the hearts of and minds is a core component for a revolutions to succeed. This vital element was what made successful the French Revolution, the American colonies’ breakaway from England, the uprising against the Shah of Iran, and Cuban rebels toppling Fulgencio Batista.
Fidel Castro you say could not have done it without American help? US military help alone could not have brought Castro to power if he did not have the support of the Cuban people. More importantly, Cuba showed the world it can survive a decades-long US economic embargo after it disengaged from its American patron. For this, Cubans endured hardship but they stayed the course with Castro who was to them some sort of a father figure.
US-Cuba relations
Power has shifted seamlessly from Fidel to his brother Raul. Normalization of relations between Cuba and the US was started in the last year of the Obama administration. The unpredictable Donald Trump seems to have placed the Cuban issue on the back burner given his present preoccupation with banning immigrants and travelers from seven Muslim countries and his plan to build a wall along the US-Mexico border to prevent undocumented and undesirable Mexicans from entering the United States.
Then, too, Trump is saddled with the problem involving his campaign team meeting with the Russians to get dirt on Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. The secret meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya took place at the Trump Tower in New York City during the presidential campaign. Trump’s son, Donald Jr. son-in-law Jared Kushner and campaign strategist Paul Manafort have a lot of explaining to do before a Senate committee called to inquire about the team’s dealing with a Kremlin-identified operator.