On the 356th day in office of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, nine remarkable things have stood out. They are:
1. The vicious war on drugs (WOD).
It is not clear who is winning.
According to the Philippine National Police website, 3,151 drug personalities have been killed by the police, 84,467 have been arrested, and 1.3- million drug addicts have surrendered after 62,751 anti-drug operations.
Yet, no major drug lord has been killed or arrested, except perhaps for that mayor who was jailed and killed apparently while trying to resist an arrest or search warrant—inside a police jail.
Despite the viciousness of the WOD, recent drug busts have run into billions—P6 billion in San Juan City, Metro Manila, P2 billion in Valenzuela City, P10 million in Marawi City.
One positive dividend of the WOD—a sharp decline in petty and big-time criminality like kidnapping. In one month, the police reported a 49-percent reduction.
2. The war in Marawi.
It is not clear who is winning.
Again, the government cannot claim it is winning the war. As of June 28, 2017, 397 have died—299 terrorists or rebels, 71 government troopers, and 27 civilians. The army recovered 358 enemy firearms and rescued 1,711 civilians. The government has not arrested nor killed the three top leaders of the Islamist extremists or terrorist group—Isnilon Hapilon, and the brothers Abdullah Maute and Omarkhayam Maute. It will take at least P20 billion to rehabilitate Marawi, the Philippines’ premier Muslim city. That is a very small amount. The government, I estimate, would have spent by now P20 billion in trying to contain the Philippine loyalists of ISIS.
3. Slowing economic growth.
The World Bank in April this year projected economic growth rate of 6.9 percent for 2017 and 2018. Those figures seem to me now overly optimistic.
The economy grew by just 6.4 percent in the first quarter this year, down from seven percent earlier projected by Economic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia, and from 6.9 percent in the first quarter of 2016. After hitting a seven-quarter-high 7.1-percent growth in third quarter 2016, the economy has slumped to 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter 2016 and to 6.4 percent in the first quarter 2017.
A property developer I interviewed last month confided that sales of condominium units have suddenly slowed down.
Under BS Aquino III, a do-nothing president, the economy grew as high as 7.8 percent (in 2013). Duterte is very passionate about growth and has assembled a topnotch economic team to deliver it. The team promptly designed a P9-trillion infra spending program in the next six years. Their start has been rather slow. BS Aquino did not know how to spend P1 trillion for infra in six years.
Duterte’s team will spend beginning 2018 P1 trillion for infra every year for five years—P1.35 trillion in 2019, P1.497 trillion in 2020, P1.668 trillion in 2021, and P1.898 trillion in 2022. Can the bureaucracy handle that much money without significant leakage? Usually, in infra as much as 30 percent goes to graft. From infra alone, graft could be P500 billion a year or P2.5 trillion in five years.
A deteriorating peso-dollar rate is usually a sign of trouble. The peso has hit 50.50 per US dollar, the lowest in 10 years. A devaluing peso means money flowing out of the country because of higher importations, weak exports, dollar salting, investments being cashed in and leaving for safer grounds, and pure speculation.
4. The President’s health has become an issue. Twice in two weeks, Duterte disappeared from public view for four days. Speaking before a Chinese charitable organization Wednesday, the President disclosed “you will see less and less of me,” adding “until the Marawi incident is over.”
I had a boss who used to have dialysis at least once a week. He routinely disappeared once a week for three days for several months, until he had a kidney transplant. Then he lived for at least 10 years after the transplant.
5. The slow takeoff of the “Build, Build, Build” Golden Age of Infrastructure. The government will do away with Public-Private Participation program in building roads, highways and major infra projects. That means the private sector, usually very competent and efficient and therefore, faster, in completing projects, is out. Government will do most of the work and funding for infra. So same question: Does the government have what economists call absorptive capacity to handle P8.4 trillion worth of infra. If the infra program cannot take off properly and adequately, Duterte won’t be able to reduce poverty incidence to single digit, from 21.6 percent of the population at present.
6. The slow takeoff of the tax reform program.
Tax reform is supposed to increase taxes by P306.6 billion in its first year, under Package One – a lower personal income tax rate, expansion of value added tax (on sugar,candies, orange juice, and some say even salt), automobile and oil excise tax. The Senate will likely torpedo those taxes. Reason: The senators handling tax reform are up for reelection.
7. Failure to curb government corruption significantly.
8. Failure to solve traffic in Metro Manila, especially on E. Delos Santos Avenue. Instead of improving, Edsa traffic has worsened. It now takes over two hours to commute from East Avenue in QC to New World Hotel in Makati. I should know, I took that route at 11:15 a.m. yesterday and I arrived at the hotel at 1:40 p.m. From Magallanes on SLEX to Shaw Blvd. in Mandaluyong is also two hours in the early evening. I should know. I take that route once a week.
The now-notorious MRT 3 still breaks down three times a day, if it runs at all.
9. Failure to curb red tape.
It still takes three months to process one’s passport. You still cannot get your plastic driver’s license and your new car plate. My driver got his plastic license one year after application.
Even if you are able to secure your passport, it is no better in quality and look and feel than the previous passport. Even if you get a new car plate, it is still no better than the old car plate.