Some foreign observers are alarmed the Philippines is being locked in the embrace of the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon.
This was after the recent ports of call by Russian vessels at the South Harbor and President Rodrigo Duterte’s plan to hold military exercises between Filipino and Russian troops even as he threatened to scrap the same war games between the Philippines and the United States.
The US-PHL “Balikatan” war exercises are held annually under the Mutual Defense treaty, Visiting Forces Agreement and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the two countries. The three defense agreements are sanctioned and signed by officials of both governments. Is the planned Philippine-Russian war exercises covered by such official agreements? There are now concerns President Duterte has delivered the country into the hands of the Russian bear and the fire-breathing Chinese dragon. In the light of Chinese encroachment and military buildup in the South China Sea, the Philippines has become even more vulnerable without the US defense umbrella.
US State Department spokesman John Kirby, however, downplayed news of the Moscow-Manila defense cooperation, saying the US bilateral relations with the Philippines remain strong. Along with the recent development, the US announced the deployment of patrol boats in the South China Sea. The US boats will sail in international waters but close to the artificial islands the Chinese built to install naval stations including an airstrip. The US deployment is meant to keep free vital international shipping lanes in the South China Sea. The SCS is a flashpoint in the region owing to the simmering territorial dispute among China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan.
With the Russkies coming in, the South China Sea is going to be more crowded. A volatile situation arising from a miscalculation and a collision of ships of the three military powers cannot be ruled out.
So what happens to the US pivot to Asia and its rebalancing of forces to remain a Pacific power? The Philippine president, as seen by international observers, might have just thrown a monkey wrench to America’s grandiose Pacific plan.
Against this looming perfect storm in the South China, we have to hear from Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. The formulation of foreign policy more or less emanates from the executive. But it is expected that our foreign secretary at least has a hand in its conceptualization and formulation of foreign policy that redounds to the benefit of the country instead of delivering us to the barbarians at the gates.
Money problems
As if it were not enough that the country has to deal with external and internal threats, the government also has to cope with expenditures. President Duterte’s plan to raise the salary of soldiers and policemen, along with the monthly pension of retirees, has come into money problems.
Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno tried to defend the President saying Mr. Duterte cannot be held down to his promise during the election campaign. The realities, Diokno, said is that there are not enough funds and to raise the pension would bankrupt the Social Security System in the long run. Why didn’t the President’s financial advisers factor in the cost and contribution of workers into SSS coffers? In the insurance business, this is done by experts called actuaries. They project the life span of beneficiaries vis-a-vis the monthly premium paid by the insured.
That is the problem with recycled Cabinet members like Diokno who served as budget secretary in the administration of former President Joseph Estrada. Instead of thinking out of the box, they are straitjacketed by old-school practice.