In the theory and practice of modern democratic governance, newly elected administrations are given by the people—those who voted them into power and those who did not—a period within which to try out newly acquired wings, put new ideas into play and inevitably, make mistakes. Political scientists call that period the honeymoon. Six months is the usual period for a post-election honeymoon, but it can last longer, perhaps even a year, depending on the circumstances.
The administration of Rodrigo Duterte honeymoon with the Filipino people—the 38 percent of the electorate that voted for him and the 62 percent that overwhelmingly refused to vote for him-has now run for almost six months. There are numerous indications that the honeymoon is about to end.
To understand why the Filipino people’s honeymoon with the administration of Rodrigo Duterte has not lasted longer, one need only review the things that the Man from Davao City has said and done and the things that he has failed to do.
For starters there is the disturbance, occasioned by Mr. Duterte’s gross incivility, of this country’s relations with institutions and countries that are of the greatest importance to the Philippines’ international standing, namely, the US, the Vatican and the United Nations. The 38 percent of Filipinos who voted for him may tolerate or even enjoy his vulgarities, but the 62 percent who didn’t vote for Mr. Duterte are appalled by his misuse and abuse of Presidential prerogatives.
Then there are the Duterte administration’s inadequately-thought-out positions on such important issues as climate change and labor contractualization. Mr. Duterte’s early declaration that he would not honor the UN-sponsored treaty on climate change, which he would shortly thereafter withdraw, got Filipinos thinking whether the former city mayor had a firm grasp of international realities. And the campaign against labor contractualization has not nearly achieved the total eradication of “endo” that DoLE (Department of Labor and Employment) had targeted. On the contrary, the campaign has led to layoffs as honest business establishments unwilling to meet DoLE’s demand chose to streamline their labor forces instead.
On the things-undone side of the honeymoon balance sheet are several major entries. The incoming administration made a big deal of a request for Congressional grant of so-called emergency powers for dealing with the horrendous national transportation situation. But Congressional hearings revealed that Mr. Duterte and his people didn’t have concrete plans for the use of the emergency powers. As the administration’s first six months came to an end, the transportation situation, especially Metro Manila’s traffic, is almost as bad as ever.
As for the poverty and food situation, the Duterte administration has had nothing to offer the nation’s poor and hungry, recently estimated to comprise around 26 percent of the Filipino people. The Department of Agriculture has had very little impact on a sector that accounts for nearly 20 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and close to one-third of the national work force. Whatever programs DSWD (Department of Social Welfare and Development) has been implementing during the last six months have largely been hand-me-downs from the previous administration.
Truth to tell, whatever economic strength and stability the Philippine economy enjoys today are carry-overs from the macro-economic fundamentals left behind by the Aquino administration. These very same macro-economic fundamentals stand in danger of being eroded by the verbal and other excesses of Mr. Duterte.
Anyone who knows anything about the practices associated with marriage knows that honeymoons don’t last forever; they come to an end. And Rodrigo Duterte’s honeymoon with the Filipino people is slowly but surely coming to an end.
Twelve months is a long time in the life of any country, and the Philippines is no exception. After six months of the Duterte administration—with its melodrama and theatrics and prevarications—the 62 percent of Filipinos who did not vote for Mr. Duterte—want his administration to start delivering on things like jobs, food, basic services, investments, crops and small-scale industries. They want more food on the table and less cussing in news pages. They are not prepared to give the Duterte administration much more time to produce concrete results.
The next six months are going to be crucial for Mr. Duterte.
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