It was not a clarification of what was earlier said by the President. It was a contradiction when President Rodrigo Duterte said the Philippines needs the United States to defend us in our territorial dispute in the South China Sea. This, after Duterte said he wanted US Special Forces out of Mindanao because they might be targeted by the notorious Abu Sayyaf Group. His own Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana says otherwise—that the few US Special Forces with their technical equipment are needed to help track the movevement of the notorious ASG group in the jungles of Sulu and Basilan.
Perfecto Yasay Jr., Duterte’s Foreign secretary, in a posturing speech at a Washington forum, told US officials America should no longer treat Filipinos as their “little brown brothers, adding “mutual respect between sovereign states and allies” must be observed.
Which is which ? Please clarify whether we want “big brother” on our side against the big bully in our backyard or whether we can go it alone as a sovereign state to defend ourselves against our neighbor across the pond who shows no respect for our maritime boundaries. Obviously, we are an ant compared to the fire-breathing Chinese dragon.
For someone who expects the help of a friend, President Duterte—who has gained a reputation for his expletives called US President Barack Obama a “son of a bitch” and his ambassador to Manila as gay—is talking from both sides of a mealy mouth guaranteed to make the Philippines lose friends and gain enemies. He also called United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon a fool and threatened to pull the Philippines out of the UN. Duterte now is taking on the European Union which is a source of foreign investments. This is the last thing the country needs at a time when we are locked in a bitter territorial dispute with an aggressive China. Our victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is meaningless to the Chinese who, at the outset, declared they won’t be bound by the UN tribunal decision. Instead, they have stepped up the building of their military installations on man-made islands from the shoals, reefs and rocks in the South China Sea.
Again, we ask. Whatever happened to former President Fidel V. Ramos’ back channel mission to repair relations with Beijing? Nothing has been heard about the mission since FVR left a month ago. Was the mission a failure which would explain the stony silence on the matter from Malacañang? Normally, success would have been trumpeted by the Palace if not Ramos himself. Foreign observers cannot find rhyme or reason why Manila should be the one to initiate a policy of appeasement with Beijing which is clearly the aggressor in extending its maritime boundaries.
The main US concern in the South China Sea is the freedom of navigation in international sea lanes. There is no time line when the US with its naval power in the Pacific will react if and when China crosses the line. The disputed area is seen as a flash point and it takes just a spark for this powder keg to explode. A local observer who has seen it all said China, in his view, is prepared to take acceptable losses in case of a high-tech missile exchange with the US. A military setback, according to the same observer, would actually unite the Chinese people who are disgruntled by its leadership’s inclination to start a war. Any armed confrontation in the region is not going to be the conventional ground war in which the sheer number of China’s People’s Liberation Army would have any bearing. Any flare-up in Southeast Asia will be marked by fireworks in the sky of missiles being fired from US warships already patrolling the area. Will China be able to match the US air and naval firepower?
It may be premature to talk of such a scary scenario, but it is better to brace ourselves because we are in the crossfire and the Philippines has standing Mutual Defense Treaty and an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States. These two military treaties call upon the Philippines to side with the US as much as we expect America to come to our aid if attacked by a foreign power.
We know whose side North Korea will be on but Japan with its own territorial row with China on the Senkaku/Diaoyo Island has been providing patrol boats to the Philippines to strengthen its maritime borders. China is wary of Japan which occupied it in World War II just as Japan is concern about a rising China in the region.
Let us all pray war does not happen and that the two world powers exercise utmost restraint.