The United States will be obligated to take military action against China in the South China Sea disputes if Beijing moves to reclaim Scarborough Shoal, a hotly contested reef also claimed by the Philippines, President Benigno Aquino III said Thursday.
Aquino said the country would be prepared for any action by China, as the Philippines stresses its claim to Scarborough Shoal, located 185 nautical miles from Manila.
“We don’t subscribe to the notion that it’s theirs,” Aquino said during an interview with The New York Times. He warned there would be a harsh response if China decided to claim the shoal.
According to an article published in the Times, Aquino said he had no indication that China had imminent plans to develop the reef, known as Scarborough Shoal. He said he had not seen any recent intelligence reflecting a Chinese buildup at the shoal, which China effectively took control of in 2012, after a long standoff.
If China would push to make Scarborough Shoal a strategic outpost, it would be a major coup, given its proximity to American and Philippine military forces.
Aquino said, in his view, the United States would be forced to defend the Philippines or risk losing its credibility in the region.“It has to maintain its ascendancy, moral ascendancy, and also the confidence of one of its allies,” said Aquino, during an interview in Malacañang.
According to reports, China moved swiftly in recent years to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea, one of the world’s major shipping routes, by building artificial islands equipped with airstrips and radar on top of rocks and shoals.
China’s actions angered neighboring countries, including the Philippines, which claim many of the territories as their own.
The United States recently gained approval from the Philippines to begin stationing troops at five bases, in hopes of deterring China.
In recent weeks, Chinese military commentators have indicated that Beijing would like to begin developing the shoal, possibly by adding an airstrip.
A report by Xinhua, China’s official news agency, called Scarborough Shoal an “inalienable part of the Chinese territory” since ancient times.
Military analysts have suggested that efforts by China to reclaim the shoal could prompt an aggressive response from the United States.
The United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty. However, experts said it would probably not be applied unless the Chinese military attacked Philippine forces unprovoked.
“Scarborough is a red line,” said Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“It would clearly change the balance of power,” Poling said.
The Philippines has disputed China’s claims in the South China Sea before an international court at The Hague.
A decision is expected in the coming weeks, though China has vowed to ignore it.
In the interview, Aquino, whose six-year term as president ends on June 30, compared the dispute in the South China Sea to a boxing match.
He said China, with its vast population and considerable economic and military assets, was capable of knocking out the Philippines at any time.
“I think it would be foolhardy for us to devote all of our resources to getting weapons of mass destruction,”he said.
Aquino brushed aside concerns that his successor, Rodrigo Duterte, would take a softer approach toward China, saying the president-elect might come to see things his way once he has had a full briefing.
Duterte has indicated that he would be open to negotiating directly with the Chinese rather than pursuing international methods to resolve the dispute.
But Duterte has made patriotic statements about the sovereignty of the Philippines. During the election campaign, Duterte said he would ride a Jet Ski to the disputed territories and plant a Philippine flag.