There will be 35,000 deaths in the event the “Big One,” a phrase used to describe a major earthquake, strikes the National Capital Region, according to Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Emerson Carlos.
“Should the ‘Big One’ occur, which experts believe would happen anytime, there will be 35,000 deaths in Metro Manila in the first hour alone; over 100,000 injured, and at least 500 instantaneous fires, most of which are in [the City of] Manila,” Carlos said during the recently held Manila Disaster Relief Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Conference in Pasay City.
Being one of the oldest cities in the country, Manila is most vulnerable to the expected “Big One,” a powerful 7.2-magnitude earthquake, Carlos warned.
But the MMDA chief praised Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada and the city government’s “renewed vigor” to improve and re-equip its disaster response unit—the Manila Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office.
“In terms of preparedness, Manila has improved. They allocated more funds and they were able to tap it. And then they were able to utilize all the 897 barangays of the city. If you train 10 in each barangay, you will have almost 9,000 responders. That’s a big force,” Carlos said.
In case of the expected powerful 7.2-magnitude earthquake, Carlos said most parts of Manila will either be destroyed by huge fires or swept away by hundred-meter tall tsunamis, causing horrific number of deaths and massive destruction.
Carlos is citing the earthquake damage scenario contained in the 2004 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, the MMDA and Japan International Cooperation Agency, which grimly details the seemingly end-of-the-world situation when a powerful quake hits the NCR as a result of the sudden movement of the West Valley Fault.
To prevent or lessen the number of casualties in case of the disaster, Estrada has allocated P617 million in additional funds to the city government’s continuous disaster risk reduction capability-building program.
“Our plans also include the purchase of a long-range public address system, weather forecasting system, a mobile command and control vehicle and more ambulances,” said Estrada.
Based on the study’s Urban Vulnerability against Earthquake Damage, the Manila North Port Area, South-Eastern Manila, and Central Manila Bay Area are the “most vulnerable to flammability” and the evacuation would be “very difficult.”
In this scenario, 170,000 residential houses will collapse, fires will burn approximately 1,710 hectares of land and properties, and 18,000 additional persons will be killed by the secondary disaster, the study stated.
The MMDA initiated last year the conduct of a metro-wide shake drill after the Phivolcs came up with a warning of a massive quake if the Valley Fault System moves.
The system is comprised of the 10-kilometer East Valley Fault in Rizal, and the 100-kilometer West Valley Fault, which passes through six Metro Manila cities and parts of the Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal provinces.