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Monday, May 6, 2024

It’s President Grace Poe

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In my column of March 4, 2016, I said that the hottest publicly owned company is DoubleDragon Properties Corp.

In less than two years, the company’s stock price has risen more than 13-fold, from P2 per share in April 2014 when it conducted its IPO (initial  public offering), to P26.80 as of March 4, an astonishing gain of 1,240 percent for its investors. The company was valued at P60 billion.

On Tuesday afternoon, DoubleDragon was  worth P71.12 billion.   It gained P11 billion in just two trading days, from P60 billion on the 4th to P71.12 billion on the 8th.

DoubleDragon’s founder and principal stockholder, Edgar “Injap” Sia II, owns 37 percent of the company.   At DD’s market cap of P60 billion last Friday, Injap was worth P22.2 billion.   At DD’s market cap of P71.12 billion as of Tuesday, Injap was worth P26.3 billion, a gain of P4.11 billion in two days or P2 billion per stock market trading day.

 How many Filipinos add P2 billion to their net worth every day?

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On the political front, the Supreme Court, voting 9-6, allowed Senator Grace Poe to run for president of the Philippines in the May 9, 2016 presidential elections.

The decision made by an overwhelming two-thirds majority could mean two things —Grace Poe is a natural-born Filipino and she probably meets the ten-year residency required of candidates for president.   Note that the Supreme Court used the word “allowed” which implies the justices gave her the benefit of the doubt rather than made a decision based on the letter of applicable jurisprudence and the Constitution.

The high court decision is a game changer, to use a cliché.   It gives Poe tremendous moral boost and a distinct advantage over her opponents.   The bandwagon effect of her judicial victory is considerable.

Even without the   Supreme Court verdict, Poe already had natural advantages.  At 47, she is the youngest of the presidential candidates. Her closest rivals are in their 70s (Jejomar Binay is 72 and Rodrigo Duterte, 70), a disadvantage where in a country of 100 million people, half are below 25.   She is hugely popular, being the adopted daughter of actor Fernando Poe Jr, who almost won the presidency in 2004 were it not for his lack of political skills.  She is a woman and women are majority of voters and more discriminating than the men.

The Supreme Court ruling invests Poe a legitimacy not even her birth as a foundling could give her.

 The senator did not fail to seize the day to parlay the meaning of her judicial triumph.  

Holding back her tears and speaking in Filipino, Grace expressed her heartfelt thanks to the Filipino people “who did not lose hope and kept their faith in me and never stopped praying not only for me, but also, for justice.”     

“I also thank the Supreme Court for giving due recognition to truth, justice and most important of all, protection of the oppressed among our people,” she added.

 “There is now a window to give a chance to the poor and those at the margins of society.   There is now a real opportunity for genuine change.  I will not forget my ordeal.   I will use it to unify our people, to join together, so that everyone, and not just a few, will better their lives,” Poe asserted. “This is a victory of the people, a victory for those who are oppressed and who suffer under the system.   It is a victory for our women.”

The Supreme Court legitimizing Grace Poe’s run for the presidency is easily worth four million votes, 10 percent of those voting on election day.   She migrates from underdog status (because of Comelec’s disqualifying her, first, for not being a natural born Filipino, and second, for not having met the 10-year residency requirement) to nearly an unbeatable frontrunner.

Before Tuesday’s Supreme Court decision, the May 9 electoral battle was a tossup between Poe and Vice President Jejomar Binay.

In the BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations survey of Feb. 5 to 7, 2016, Binay had grabbed 29 percent of possible electoral votes if elections were held during that period.   Grace Poe had 24 percent—the same as Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte’s.    

Back in December 2015, before Comelec disqualified Poe, the senator tied with Binay for first place, with both enjoying an identical 26-percent voter preference. Binay and Poe were also tied for first in SWS’s Nov. 21, 2015 survey, at 21 percent.

  In The Standard Poll conducted by pollster Junie Laylo Feb. 24 to March 1, 2016, Poe, Binay, and Duterte tied statistically for first place.

Poe enjoyed 26 percent (down from 29 percent in January), Duterte 24 percent   (up from 20 percent), and Vice President Binay 23 percent(up from 22 percent).

“With Poe getting slight declines in vote share, Duterte gaining some points, and Binay and Roxas maintaining their vote support­—the presidential race has become tighter,” this paper quoted Junie Laylo.

A 26-percent share of the vote, assuming a voter turnout of 40 million (80 percent) translates into 10.4 million votes, 1.2 million votes more than Binay’s 9.2 million votes (23 percent).

After the Supreme Court mandate, Grace Poe should easily garner more than 14 million votes, enough to swamp her rivals, and snatch the presidency.  

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