Elections result in either continuity or discontinuity: continuity if the incumbent administration is returned to office and discontinuity if another party wins a mandate. That is why citizens of democratic societies either look forward to elections with eagerness or regard them with trepidation.
Whether it is eagerness or trepidation that the voters experience depends on the kind of governance that the party in power has provided the nation. If the incumbent administration has been governing well, its supporters will be eager to give it a fresh mandate. On the other hand, trepidation will be the order of the day if the surveys show that a good-governance administration might lose the upcoming election and be replaced by a party led by people of questionable integrity and competence.
As the 2016 campaign season draws closer, the electorate of this country is divided between those who desire continuity—represented by the election as President of PNoy Aquino’s anointed successor, Mar Roxas—and fear discontinuity, represented by the victory of any of the Liberal Party bet’s four presumptive opponents (Sen. Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Sen. Miriam Santiago and Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte), and those who believe that the Aquino administration has been a disaster for this country and should be replaced by an administration that can do a better job of governing the nation.
To be sure, change always involves disruption, and the defeat of PNoy’s heir apparent, by putting an end to the “daang matuwid” administration, would be disruptive for this country. Policies would be changed—though Sen. Poe has been enunciating proposed policies that are virtual restatements of Aquino administration policies—new Cabinet members with different management styles and professional capabilities would be appointed and institutional structures would be rearranged.
Experience has shown that at least one year is needed for all these changes to work their way through the governmental system and for a new administration to begin operating smoothly. The longer an administration has been in office—six years is longer than the previous Constitution’s four years—the less easy is an administrational transition.
In contrast, a Mar Roxas/Liberal Party victory would mean a seamless transition from one administration to the next, with all the implications of that for the economic and social policies that have generated plaudits for the Aquino administration. There would be continuity; there would be no disruptive policy personnel and institutional changes.
This is not to suggest that change and discontinuity are necessarily bad things. Far from it. A change of administration is necessary, even welcome, where the people in power are notoriously corrupt, highly incompetent, visionless or a combination of these characterizations.
But change, and the discontinuity that it brings in its train, should not be undertaken just for the sake of making things different. Change must result in better, more efficient and fairer ways of getting things done. In the case of the governance of this country, that means maintenance of economic growth, poverty reduction, greater inclusiveness for the nation’s less privileged citizens, greater peace and order, a robust anticorruption drive, a more efficient agricultural sector, and improved FDI (foreign direct investment) performance, a stable financial system, a strengthened military establishment and a credible foreign policy.
Being a member of the Liberal Party and a member of PNoy’s Cabinet from the outset, Mar Roxas has been privy to the shaping and functioning of the Aquino administration during the last five-and-a-half years. Were Mar Roxas to win, there would be continuity of policy and the “daang matuwid” would be maintained. The transition from the Aquino administration would be smooth.
The same would not be true if any of the other four presidential candidates were to win. There would be discontinuity. The policies that have worked so well for this country since 2010 would be replaced or revised. New officials with different professional mindsets and management styles would be appointed to head the Cabinet departments and other government instrumentalities. The Filipino people, especially the businessmen, would have to adjust and adapt to the new policies and policy implementors.
Continuity versus discontinuity: that is what the 2016 election will mean for the voters and for the nation. A vote for Mar Roxas will be a vote for continuation of the “daang matuwid” policies of the last five-and-a-half years. A vote for Sen. Poe, Sen. Santiago, Vice President Binay or Mayor Duterte will be a vote for discontinuity.
Two questions political analysts will have to ponder and answer. Will the voters opt for continuity? And are they prepared for the discontinuity that an Opposition victory will bring?
E-mail: [email protected]