Elections are like horse races, and when they come around, everyone’s a handicapper.
From the pundits in the papers to the driver in taxicabs, they all have opinions as to what might transpire in 2016. They’re imagining likely scenarios and making book on who the favorite and longshot are in this most important of races.
But nothing is as constant, the wise man said, as change; and what seems likely now might not be the case in the future.
Here are possible scenarios I’ve heard:
Vice President Jojo Binay’s chances looked dismal after the allegations of plunder against him in connection with Makati City spending on the new city hall. But the Supreme Court’s junking of his son Mayor Jun Binay’s case could turn things around. Binay could win due to his foresight of laying strong grassroots mechanisms during his years as Makati administrator.
As a presidential hopeful, Senator Miriam Santiago will have to overcome the number of supporters of the candidates ahead of her in the surveys. Her teammate Bongbong Marcos is rallying strong support and looks well-poised in the vice presidential race.
If Grace Poe loses the cases questioning her citizenship and residency, her high survey ratings are rendered moot. If the cases are thrown out, it still won’t be easy going for her given the number of opponents.
Mar Roxas is still constructing his narrative that hinges on continuity of the present administration’s plans and goals. The Ilonggo vote that might be expected to support him would perhaps be divided between him and Santiago.
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte has up to Dec. 10 to decide whether to run for president or not as the substitute of Martin Diño. If he runs, he is expected to carry Mindanao and many in the Visayas. Support for him in Luzon is also growing. If Senator Alan Cayetano manages to hitch his wagon to this rising star, this might be the tandem to beat.
Leni Robredo is so far looking shiny and untarnished, and looks like the top favorite in the race for veep.
As we always say in the races, anything can happen. Even the top favorite that punters believed could not lose, may break badly or clip his heels or stumble at the start. But an election is not a horse race where you can hedge your bets; you only have one vote, and you have to make it count.
The temptation will be strong to vote for the candidate who will give you an advantage—a good job, a government contract, some other favor. But the country deserves better. Vote according to your conscience. Vote for the people who will do the best job. Vote for the candidates who will lift us up, not bring us down.
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The Polytechnic University of the Philippines, with the Department of Education and the National Book Development Boar, is holding the 1st PUP Litfest dubbed “Booklatan sa Bayan” from Nov. 11 to 13 at PUP-Sta. Mesa campus.
Yesterday’s speakers were Alvin Buenaventura, Eros Atalia, and Beverly Siy. Today, catch Manix Abrera, Mervin Malonzo, and Adam David. Tomorrow, listen to Mina Esguerra and Edgar Calabia Samar.
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Mia Alvar, Ondrej Neff, and other writers and academics will speak at the 6th Philippine International Literary Festival, which explores the theme “Lalang (likha): Writing in Place, Creating Your Place.”
Alvar is the Fil-American author of the acclaimed In The Country, a collection of short stories about the Filipino diaspora. Neff is a Czech science fiction writer and journalist.
The two-day literary event, organized by the NBDB, will be held for the first time in Davao City, on Nov. 20-21 at the Seda Hotel. Other guest speakers include University of the Philippines literature and creative writing professor Jose Y. Dalisay Jr., writers Mina Esguerra and Kristian Sendon Cordero, and NBDB executive director Ciela Cayton.
Topics include readership, regional literature, language, and the publishing challenges faced by authors from the regions. Artistic performances, literary exhibits, and a book fair are among the event’s activities.
To register, email litfest@nbdb.gov.ph.
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