The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is sticking to its full-year growth forecast of 5 percent for remittances despite a 0.6-percent decline in August, the slowest in more than 12 years.
Bangko Sentral Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said Friday remittances growth would rebound in the last quarter of the year, noting that migrant Filipino workers usually send more money during the Christmas season.
“I believe remittances will continue to be stable at around 5 percent for 2015. We continue to see robust deployment [of skilled Filipino workers] to different regions and territories,” Guinigundo said in a text message to reporters.
He said Filipino skills remained in big demand worldwide. He said despite the soft global growth, Filipino workers continued to find opportunities because of their diversified skills and competencies.
“In fact in the last quarter of the year… we expect renewed heavy inflows because of the holidays,” Guinigundo said.
Money sent home by Filipinos overseas declined 0.6 percent in August to $2.044 billion from $2.057 billion a year ago as the US dollar, buoyed by the expected interest rates hike by the Federal Reserve this year, strengthened against most currencies.
The figure was the first contraction in 12 years, or since the 10.9-percent decline in April 2003. The August amount brought cash remittances in the first eight months to $16.206 billion, still 4.1 percent higher from $15.572 billion a year ago.
Cash remittances from land-based and sea-based workers totaled $12.4 billion and $3.8 billion, respectively. The bulk of cash remittances came from the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong and Canada.
Personal remittances, which include non-cash items, also declined to an all-time low of 0.8 percent in August to $2.250 billion from $2.278 billion on year.
The figure was the lowest on record because the Bangko Sentral started to account personal remittances only in 2010. This brought personal remittances in the first eight months to $17.933 billion, still higher by 3.9 percent over the $17.268 billion on year.
The steady deployment of migrant Filipino workers provide ssupport to remittance inflows. Preliminary data from the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration showed total job orders in the first eight months reached 584,816, with 41.5 percent processed.
The job orders were intended mainly for service, production, and professional, technical and related workers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Remittances fuel private consumption and are one of the backbones of economic growth. Cash remittances in 2014 posted a record $24.308 billion, up 5.8 percent from $22.968 billion in 2013. They also accounted for 8.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2014.