It is that time of the year again when Lady Fate starts swinging the dreaded upset ax. Every top-seeded team ducks for cover hoping to avoid such an embarrassing exit, and while fatalities are few and far in between in the history of NBA Playoffs, those that lost their collective necks to this bane suffer ignominy, because fans do not easily forgive such falling from grace, and critics do not easily forget.
The start of the 2019-20 NBA Playoffs had everyone comparing notes that plot the path of each one’s chosen eventual champion — as usual. After all, wearing the sports analyst hat is an exciting exercise only if you have someone you can badger regarding your Playoff predictions, more so if you have the money to bet on your strongly-held convictions.
But I think it is too early to be talking about Finals predictions; the favorites are the first to acknowledge this trip is no cakewalk – either as a pragmatic outlook or false humility. Besides, guessing which teams will most likely take the Finals stage is not as stimulating as guessing which teams are vulnerable enough to be denied a second-round entry, not with a select few dominant teams making a clear case for themselves as legitimate contenders for the Larry O’Brien trophy, while some teams are here merely to fill the vacancies present because of the requirement of the 16-team playoff format.
And thinking about upsets made me think about the Milwaukee Bucks and how they appear burdened (and put in danger) by a particular aversion.
The Bucks square off with No. 8 Orlando Magic in the first round. Chances of an upset? Very low. Milwaukee comes to the Playoffs buoyed by the confidence brought about by a dominant regular season and a roster in full complement. That is good news for the Bucks and their fans, right? Yes, but only if Milwaukee finds a way to overcome one particular flaw: starting the playoffs upset-conscious.
At the core of the Bucks’ anxiety is an ultimatum, the proverbial gun pressed against their head: they cannot afford another failed postseason campaign, and here are the reasons why.
First, the top seed losing to eighth seed is just outright embarrassing. The last time East’s top team lost the first round was during the 2011-12 season when Derrick Rose and No. 1-ranked Chicago Bulls succumbed to the Philadelphia 76ers (4-2). In their defense, Chicago turned from a battleship ready for war into a rudderless ship lost at sea, when Rose tore his anterior cruciate ligament in Game 1 of the first-round series.
The last time a team with homecourt advantage lost the first-round series was during the 2017-18 season, after No. 5 Utah defeated No. 4 OKC (4-2) while No. 6 New Orleans swept No. 3 Portland.
The Bucks are upset-conscious and cannot afford to lose because falling short again after a strong regular season will further erode team pride which took a strong hit last season after choking in the Eastern Conference Finals. This is another reason they are upset-conscious. I am sure it remains a fresh wound, the memory of how after blitzing Detroit, going 4-1 against Boston, and winning the first two games of the ECF, the Bucks – the top team in the regular season (60-22) – just folded and allowed Toronto to have their way in the next four games en route to the Raptors’ first-ever championship. This year, the Bucks again finished the regular season with the best record (56-17) in the league. The question now is whether or not they can remain as NBA’s best team to the end.
Here is another reason why the Bucks cannot afford a disappointing postseason: they need to convince their star player Milwaukee is where he can get his first NBA championship. Giannis Antetokounmpo's decision regarding staying or leaving Milwaukee might depend on how well or how bad the team finishes the season.
All things considered, it is safe to assume Milwaukee cannot hope for anything less than a second NBA championship for the franchise to reward their pursuit of redemption and help front office retain a superstar.
It starts in the first round, and it could end there if their being upset-conscious cripples them yet again.