The Philippine economy bobbed and weaved like a seasoned boxer throughout the 21 months of the pandemic episode. It took hard blows from COVID-19 and persevered, but somehow survived the onslaught.
It may be safe now to declare that the Philippine economy has weathered the storm, judging from the pace of business reopening we are seeing now and the increasing vaccination rate across the nation. The economy suffered scars from the battle after millions of Filipinos lost their jobs, yet it is intact and is nowhere close to collapsing.
Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III has noted the strength of the Philippine economy throughout the global health crisis period. The Philippines has never experienced a downgrade in credit ratings from respected global financial institutions since the start of the pandemic in March last year.
The gross domestic product contracted by a record 9.6 percent in 2020, the worst performance since World War II. It slowly recovered since then, with the GDP now expected to rebound by 4 percent to 5 percent this year, driven by the faster vaccination rollout that could boost consumer and business confidence.
The World Bank is even more optimistic of the Philippine recovery. It raised its 2021 growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.3 percent from its previous estimate of 4.3 percent, taking into account the 7.1-percent third-quarter expansion that exceeded market expectations despite the prolonged impact of the pandemic.
It will take several months or two years, though, before the economy reaches its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. The tourism sector, for one, is yet to take off because of border restrictions. Many dependent on the travel industry have not regained their jobs as hotels and beach resorts remain partially closed.
Face-to-face classes will also resume next year. Many in the underground economy, too, cannot reclaim their jobs pending the full reopening of the economy.
Throughout these challenges, however, the economy will be ready to absorb the displaced small businesses and workers. It is fundamentally sound and up to the task of rebuilding.