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Friday, April 26, 2024

Failure

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"Why the erratic performance? Blame the Department of Health. If it did anything during the first 30 days of the lockdown, we certainly did not hear about it."

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On April 15, 2020, President Duterte, acting on the recommendation of the Inter-agency Task Force (IATF) on the coronavirus crisis and backed by a scared business community, extended the 30-day lockdown by another two weeks, until midnight of April 30, 2020.

IAFT called for lockdown extension without telling or explaining to the nation what happened during the first 30 days of the lockdown, the gains made, if any, and the downside, if any.

The IATF did not cite any scientific findings to bolster the need for another lockdown of 15 days. Lockdown Part II doesn’t have clear basic objectives.

The coronavirus crisis is supposed to be a war. To win that war, we must know the enemy—the coronavirus or the SARS CoV-2 which causes the disease called COVID-19—coronavirus infectious disease of 2019.

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Amazingly, our so-called scientific community—our doctors, epidemiologists, virologists, biologists, even chemists—have been silent on telling us the science of the virus. What it is, how it infects us, how it damages our body leading to death, and what we must do to guard against infection and what to do during infection—except to keep a distance of six feet between us and our relatives and friends, and to wash our hands very often, for 20 seconds at least (one Happy Birthday Song), or 40 seconds, better (two Happy Birthday songs).

The man who should be in charge, Health Secretary Francisco Duque, has receded to the background, playing second fiddle to a coterie of generals, active and retired.

We have retired Lieut. Gen. Rolando Bautista, 57, the former Army commander, chief of the Presidential Security Group, and a veteran of the Battle of Marawi (whatever happened to that city?) giving cash and goodies to the very poor of Filipinos, numbering some 18 million families. He has P205 billion to give away, at P5,000 to P8,000 per family per month for two months. The problem is he doesn’t know who and where most of those families are.

We have former Major Gen. Delfin Lorenzana, 71, who as Defense secretary chairs the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), supposedly the lead agency in the disaster that is the coronavirus crisis. But it came late to the game. At first, the agency tried to monopolize the procurement and distribution of test kits, personal protective equipment (PPEs), and relief goods, adding a layer of red tape to the process, at a time when hundreds are getting sick and scores are dying. After a backlash, its monopoly was given up.

Theoretically under Lorenzana is the Armed Forces of the Philippines which has about 200,000 men and headed by Gen. Felimon Santos. The AFP’s job is as force multiplier for the enforcement of the lockdown.

We have retired Gen. Eduardo Año, 57, the former AFP chief of staff. He is the secretary of the Department of the Interior and Local Government. Under him is the Philippine National Police which has 200,000 members and is headed by police Gen. Archie Gamboa. Their job is to man the checkpoints set up to enforce the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) or lockdown.

By the way, DILG chief Año and AFP chief Santos both tested positive for COVID-19. Both have since been declared negative. So they know the enemy first hand.

We then have five generals—Bautista, Lorenzana, Santos, Año, and Gamboa manning half of the frontline against coronavirus. The other half is manned by health workers.

As if that was not enough, President Duterte appointed a sixth general, Carlito Galvez Jr., a former AFP chief. He is the National Task Force COVID-19 chief implementer of the National Action Plan (NAP) unveiled by the government in late March, three months after the coronavirus erupted worldwide in early January. He talks of a time frame of up to 18 months which means he will stay long in the job. He is a peace adviser waging a war at a time of peace.

Now, is ECQ working?

We are now more than 34 days into the lockdown which involves the near-complete shutdown of Luzon, the Philippines’ richest, most productive, and most populated main island. Luzon contributes 73 percent of the national output of goods and services which totals P18 trillion. For over 30 days, the lockdown stopped the production of P1 trillion worth of goods, shuttered 90 percent of industries, laid off 25 million workers, caused hunger and unrest, and is bringing the country to negative economic growth of three percent and record unemployment of 50 percent, the worst in 22 years.

Was the lockdown intended to flatten the curve? The answer is no.  

We continued to scale the COVID-19 Everest from 187 total cases and 45 new cases per day when the lockdown began in mid-March to 5,223 total cases and 230 new cases per day on April 15 when the new lockdown came into force.

With the start of the first lockdown, the tally had already sunk below 100 new cases per day from March 15 to March 27 (when it hit 96).

On March 28, nearly two weeks after lockdown, new cases spurted to 272, then 343 on March 29, and hit a high of 538 on March 31. Total new daily cases leveled somehow to 76 on April 4, only to go three digits each day since then, climbing 414 on April 6, 291 on April 14, and 230 on April 15. Yesterday, April 16, we had 207 new cases, bringing total infections to 5,660, with 362 deaths.

Today, the Philippines is the worst-hit country in ASEAN with 5,660 cases, despite our being the first in Asia, outside China, to declare a lockdown. The Philippines is also No. 2 in number of COVID-19 deaths in ASEAN.

Why the erratic performance?

Blame the Department of Health. If it did anything during the first 30 days of the lockdown, we certainly did not hear about it.

Only on April 13, did President Duterte order the procurement of two million rapid test kits and 900,000 PCR test kits. DOH should have ordered that on March 15, the first day of lockdown. Plus, DOH should have begun building quarantine beds to the level of 100,000. So far they have produced 6,000 beds.

The problem is that DOH under Duque was congenitally opposed to mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine by the hundred of thousands.  As a result, the ECQ did not bend the curve. It instead bent the backs of more than 18 million families because of joblessness, hunger, and poverty.

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