That so-called lightning demonstration by the New People’s Army to celebrate their 48th founding anniversary, where they came wearing masks and uniforms, was a slap on our government. The event held at the heart of Metro Manila last March 29 was repeated last Friday in Mendiola—very near Malacañang—to celebrate the successful holding of their second congress.
How is it that the NPA can mount such demonstrations right under the noses of our security services?
This is not the only thing that the NPA has been doing lately. They have been burning trucks, buses and other assets belonging to private companies. The latest was the burning of a cold storage facility of Dole Philippines in Barangay Sinawal, General Santos City depriving more than 200 people of their jobs. These are the people that the CPP/NPA are supposed to be fighting for.
Several weeks ago, two trucks of Philex Mines in the Baguio area were burned in a busy stretch of road—not too far from the gates of the Philippine Military Academy in Loakan, Baguio.
The NPA seems to be able to do what it wants with impunity and the government cannot do anything about it. Those lightning demonstrations were also the first. Never in the history of the NPA were they able to demonstrate by marching in full view of the public without being accosted by authorities. For them to do it near the center of power of the government for everyone to see was indeed very daring on their part. How were they able to do this?
Perhaps our intelligence services have deteriorated to such an extent that the PNP and AFP are now clueless of what the NPA is up to. It could also be that both services are now overstretched, doing so many other things that they now lack the resources to attend to the arrogant display of contempt by the CPP/NPA.
Right now, the NPA has an estimated regular strength of between 4,000 and 4,500 regulars supported by their mass base of over a million. In terms of numbers, this is way below their peak strength. At the height of martial law, they had something like 24,000 regulars.
The current number does not necessarily mean that the NPA is a lot weaker today. For all we know, they may have adjusted to the changing times. It could also be that the quality of the current regular NPA cadre has improved compared to the past. There is, after all, an advantage with less personnel. Command and control is more efficient and their fighters could be better supported from the so-called revolutionary taxes collected by the CPP/NPA, something that our government also is unable to stop. Better support normally mean higher morale which translates to more dedication of the fighters. From what the NPA has been doing in recent weeks, it would appear that this is part of a broader plan to appear to negotiate but at the same time be able mount terroristic attacks.
Now, the CPP/NPA is going on a recruitment campaign to increase the strength of their regular cadre and mass base. This does not seem to be something that an organization that is negotiating for peace should be doing. Instead of drawing down, the CPP/NPA wants to increase its strength. The government, on the other hand, has gone out of its way to show its sincerity. President Duterte whom the CPP/NPA consider their brethren has appointed senior government officials from the ranks of the NDF. He has also released scores of senior CPP/NPA leaders like the Tiamzons.
Despite all these confidence-building measures that the President has done, the NDF demanded that another 400 NDF members in jail for various crimes be released and given amnesty. This time, however, the President stood his ground and refused.
The government and the National Democratic Front have started their fourth round of negotiations in The Netherlands. But with what has been going on between the CPP/NPA and the government recently like the clash last Thursday in General Nakar, Quezon province where 10 NPA fighters and 2 Army personnel were killed, the atmosphere is not as euphoric as the earlier ones. Both are fighting and negotiating for peace at the same time.
President Duterte has four conditions, but so does the CPP/NPA. The President wants the release of all prisoners and for revolutionary taxation to stop while the CPP/NPA is talking about buffer zones between combatants which is tantamount to recognizing areas under their control. To many, the negotiations are all about stopping the fighting between the two contending forces but the negotiations are actually a lot more. Social, economic, political and constitutional reforms are being discussed. Why the government is even willing to talk about constitutional reform with the CPP/NPA is hard to understand considering that the current Constitution already prescribes the way it could be reformed and amended.
Joma Sison talks about the people wanting these reforms. I do not know whether he is only referring to the people who support his cause or the entire Filipino people who have always voted against candidates allied to him and therefore could not be considered his constituents. Whatever agreement is reached, however, let us hope that our government panel realize what is at stake and not sign an agreement just for the sake of signing one. And with the wide scope of issues being negotiated, it would be wise to follow the Colombian example and put whatever agreement is reached to a referendum for the people to accept or reject.