"It is important to learn best practices from each other."
"It is important to learn best practices from each other."
By and large, Asian countries are faring better than most in coping with the second, maybe even third, wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the UK leads Europe and, possibly, the United States in facing a rapid increase in Covid 19 cases, more restrictive lockdowns in these countries are expected to be imposed including an almost universal ban on the entry of travelers from the UK.
Preliminary findings suggest that this new variant which was first seen in the UK is significantly more transmissible than previously circulating variants, with an estimated potential to increase the reproductive number (R) by 0.4 or greater with an estimated increased transmissibility of up to 70%. Emerging in the midst of winter and at a time when increased family and social mixing is experienced, the emergence of this new variant has sparked not just another wave of concern but discontent and, at times, defiance by citizens on both sides of the Atlantic. While there is still no widespread indication of the severity of transmission of this new variant save for a number of reported cases in Denmark and the Benelux countries, most European governments have raised the alarm warning their citizens to take the protocols seriously. In the United States, several states have imposed restrictions so severe citizens specially small shop owners have challenged these in the courts. Nothing of that sort has happened in Asia. Which is just as well, given the huge difference in infections in these areas.
A recent study by Robert Carnell published in the ING Bank newsletter indicated that even the worst affected countries in the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) don’t look all that bad when viewed against the US or selected European countries. By far, the study showed, the worst affected country is India, with daily cases averaging between 40-50,000. That’s about the same as France today. Adjusted for population, India’s 5,944 cases per million of the population looks small compared to Spain’s 27,042, or the UK’s 15,218. Even US based experts suggest that there are more infections per million population in a number of the big states like California, New York and Texas than India.
Digging deeper, Carnell advised that Indonesia and the Philippines – the two other countries in Asia that have not been having “good” pandemics – are a lot better off than the US and other European countries With almost 500,000 confirmed cases in both countries to date, Indonesia’s daily tally is just 3,000 while the Philippines is averaging just about 2,000 cases per day.
On the other hand, Singapore which is the third country in ASEAN with the highest number of infections has seen its total easing up over the past few months as it enhanced its testing and contact tracing protocols. Apparently, it has also solved the problems in the “migrant worker” communities in the island by imposing strict protocols in the dormitories as well as intensifying testing and contact tracing activities therein. Interestingly, the other country which saw spikes intermittently is Japan, touted to be one of the cleanest and most hygienically oriented countries in the world, with 100,000 reported cases since the pandemic and a daily case rate of just less than a thousand – a situation which it has managed to contain and even lower as the year ends. Its neighbor, South Korea, has also managed itself well as it ramped up testing and contact tracing to a high level to the point of getting “super spreaders” just minutes after detection.
Save for Australia, all other countries of note have managed to hold off large-scale infections. Vietnam and Thailand, the two other populous countries in ASEAN, have not seen spikes meriting more restrictions than necessary. In fact, Vietnam only recorded its first case three months into the lockdown in May and has since managed to hold its total cases to less than 100. New Zealand has declared itself COVID-19 free immediately after the elections which saw the ruling party sweep its way to victory on the wings of a successful response to the pandemic.
Finally, China, where the virus was supposed to have originated, has seen its seven-day case average to less than 10, a situation which its “province” –Taiwan – has similarly experienced.
This is not to suggest that it is time to relax the protocols that are already in place in most of Asia including those hardly hit by the pandemic. Not at all. Most governments in the region agree that it is important at this point to closely monitor developments, ensure that the health guidelines are responsibly implemented and the public gets to move as one in transitioning to a more normal way of life. Given the economic and social impact of this almost year long abnormality (some experts have likened the global situation at this point as one emerging from a devastating war), restraint and caution remain the abiding guidance as everybody awaits the rollout of a global vaccination program like no other in recent memory.
Where cases remain on the high side in the region, lockdowns and other restrictions have typically been put in place quite slowly and often have just chased regional outbreaks with regional mobility restrictions, in much the same way that Europe has been doing until recently.
While no single policy seems to have been critical to a successful outcome, the good old protocol of “strong test, trace and isolation capabilities” combined with strict lockdowns when required, strong border controls backed by effective and enforced quarantines has become the norm. In a bid to avert deeper economic and social decline, slow and phased relaxation measures have also been adopted preparatory to the full implementation of a targeted vaccination program.
That means that for the most part, measures to relax restrictions in essential services and sectors will be worked out. In the Philippines and most of ASEAN, public transportation is proposed to be eased up to fifty percent including opening of more provincial bus routes. Malls, groceries and public markets will also be eased up including those places of worship and, hopefully, restaurants and other eating places. Small shops such as gyms, bookstores and toy shops will also be relaxed somehow but not movie theaters. Sports events will likely remain held in “bubbles” while face-to-face school openings will be relaxed only in essentially Covid 19 free areas and only for limited periods of time.
All in all, the APAC region is slowly but surely opening up in a phased and managed manner as effective governance to stem the spread of the virus including open and transparent public discussion of the measures needed to put in place seem to have taken roots far better than those in Europe and the US. Some, like Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, have associated the much touted “Asian culture” of community caring and sharing as opposed to the more individualistic, freedom-at-all-cost behavior in most of the Western world as making a lot of difference in the success of the pandemic response in the APAC region. Of course, that has not been met well enough in those other countries. But no matter. What is important at this point is to learn from each other, share and ensure the adoption and implementation of the best practices if we are to move and heal as one.