"There is no room for complacency."
"There is no room for complacency."
That the COVID-19 outbreak has the potential of morphing into a pandemic is no longer in doubt.
Given the continuing spike of those affected by this wildly spreading virus, even the most optimistic medical experts and practitioners have admitted that at the very least, this will metamorphose into solid outbreaks in a number of countries before it slows down and the needed medication is made available worldwide. Such being the case, it is not too late to call out our leaders, in and out of government, and, yes, each and everyone to come around and ask: Are we prepared for the fallout? Truth be told, the effect of this virus has been nothing less than devastating.
The very unfortunate lose of lives (more than 3,000 as of press time) and the infection of at least 80,000 people in 69 countries in just a short period of time has engendered inordinate fear and xenophobia worldwide. This has to be the most visible sign of a fall out. Calm and caution in the face of the outbreak has been literally thrown out the window.
Indeed, so palpably have fear and panic set in that no less than US Surgeon General Jerome Adams admonished citizens to stop hoarding face masks, tweeting: "Seriously people, stop buying face masks: They are not effective in preventing the public from getting coronavirus but if health care providers can't find them to care for real patients it will put them and our communities at risk." To think that America has the most sophisticated and advance health care system in the world.
Yet, we are seeing tales of discrimination, even physical harm, on Chinese or people of Asian descent in the US and Europe which, unfortunately, has been hijacked, by ultra nationalists in certain countries to harass and harm foreign (Asian)—looking individuals. That has to stop. Instead of panicking to the point of unwarranted discrimination, we should exercise caution and stay calm as we face this challenge as one people overcoming a global adversity.
Building bridges of cooperation, not fences of isolation should remain our common objective as we race against all odds in preventing the virus' spread and discovering reasonably priced vaccines and medicines to combat the disease.
Quite apart from the above, the economic fallout setting in as a result of this virus need not be over emphasized. Experts predict that China, the world's second-biggest economy and the epicenter of this outbreak, will surely see its growth rate contract for the first time in more than two decades of rapid growth. Depending on the ferocity of the virus and the time needed to contain it, Chinese contribution to global growth, which has been rising in the past decade, will definitely diminish, adding gloom to an already slowing pattern.
Take global tourism, for example, which has seen the most dramatic slowdown since the outbreak. The world's biggest carriers—Lufthansa, American Airlines, Delta, United Airlines and Air France-KLM—which carried more than 800 million passengers last year have announced flight reductions worldwide. All of them have in fact temporarily stopped service to and from China which saw 130 million of its citizens traveling abroad last year spending close to $250 billion. That should be the biggest single market for these airlines with no alternative in sight. Add to that restricted travel within their borders or between and across the US and Europe, and you have a truly disastrous year for the travel and tourism industry.
Throw in the growing number of international events and conferences which have been called off as a result of the outbreak—from sports to fashion to business to security and related activities—and you can really cry.
In the Philippines alone, which hosted 1.6 million Chinese tourists out of the 8.5 million who came last year, the slowdown is expected to be so problematic that Tourism Secretary Berna Romulo-Puyat and the private sector led Tourism Council have been devising all kinds of promotions and packages to maintain a respectable level of domestic tourism.
Truly, the economic impact of this outbreak globally and specially for mid-level and least developed nations will be unprecedented. One has to remember that in less than three decades, China has become the world's factory. It accounts for 27 percent of total goods manufacturing and 23 percent of total agricultural production. It is also a vital cog in the supply chains of most of the world's large factories, whether in the US, Europe or the Asia-Pacific. It is a leader in the development of advance technologies from e-commerce, renewable energy, AI, robotics, big data and the like. Now considered the world's foremost exporter, it is also a huge importer of all kinds of products from oil to metals to agricultural products and so on. Equally important, it has become a kind of financier-of-last-resort with its bulging international reserves which it has used to buy treasuries, bonds and other instruments which keep the flow of money and goods flowing.
Closer to home, China has become our largest trading partner and principal fund source in just a matter of a decade or so.
Thus, the question remains: Are we prepared for a Chinese slowdown much less a global one?
Finally, is our health delivery system in place to handle the fallout? This question is being asked as we witnessed the seeming confusion and helter-skelter manner which attended our responses in the first few weeks after the announcement of the outbreak. The information available was not only scant and spotty. It was confusing, adding fear and panic in an already fake and misinformed environment being pushed as well by exchanges with an uneasy Filipino diaspora across all continents.
The fact alone that we had to send samples of the first infected patient to Australia for clinical tests and the long winded debates which followed about all of the needed facilities and protocols to combat this virus shoved our readiness preparation to the bottom of the WHO Health Security Index. That needs to be alleviated soon before we get swamped with cases. Thankfully, this has not occurred just yet.
There is no room for complacency at all. The earlier we put in place a comprehensive, bottom up, all citizens-on-deck plan, the better for all concerned. Better to be proactive than reactive as the truism goes.
Is such a plan in place yet, with all the needed resources from funding to personnel to logistical support to risk communications to social mobilization and the like? We hope we will not be guessing and pointing fingers as we face this deadly challenge.