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Friday, March 29, 2024

Factors that will decide the polls

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Factors that will decide the polls"Character, regionalism, age, educational attainment and professional track record."

 

 

As in past presidential elections, the findings of voter-preference opinion surveys—and the outcome of the Presidential election itself—will depend largely on the interplay of a number of factors. 

The factors are character, regionalism, age, educational attainment, and professional track record. Hereafter, the voter-preferences surveyors will be polling registered voters on their assessment of the capability of one of five, and possibly six, candidates to be the next president of the Philippines. The six candidates are Francis Domagoso, Sara Duterte, Panfilo Lacson Jr., Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Emmanuel Pacquiao, and Leni Robredo.

Regionalism traditionally has been a major factor in Philippine politics and candidates with large regional bailiwick – for example, Ferdinand Marcos’s Ilocandia, Carlos Garcia’s and Segio Osmenia’s Visayas, and Diosdado Macapagal’s Central Luzon – have enjoyed the favorite-son and advantage. Will the Southern Tagalog and Bicol regions turn out strongly for their favorite daughter Leni Robredo, in the 2022 election? Will Bongbong Marcos score heavily next year in his home turf? Which of its two favorite children – Manny Pacquiao or Sara Duterte — will Mindanao favor more in 2022? Let us see what happens.

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With an estimated 50 percent of next year’s voting population aged 40 years and below, will Isko Domagoso enjoy a competitive advantage? Or will the millennials and Generation Z prefer experience and maturity over youthful looks? Given the enormity and complexity of the problems that the nation is facing – the pandemic is only one of them – the youth will probably prefer to go with maturity and experience.

Other things being equal, the Filipino voter will go for a candidate with good educational credentials – the more letters after a candidate’s name, the better. It is obvious that the educational-attainment criterion will have a negative impact on Manny Pacquiao’s candidacy. But on the positive side, there are Senator Pacquiao's stature as an extraordinary world boxing figure, his rags-to-riches personal story, his good character, and, last but not least, his good heart.

In terms of educational attainment Leni Robredo, Sara Duterte, and Panfilo Lacson Jr. are the top scorers; Vice President Robredo and Mayor Sara Duterte are lawyers and Senator Lacson is a graduate of the Philippine Military Academy.

From the standpoint of professional achievement, there can be no beating Leni Robredo’s having been the nation’s second-highest official for the last five and a half years. Though President Duterte has treated her like a spare tire – he gave her two positions but only for very brief periods – the Vice President has valiantly soldiered on notwithstanding the crumbs-like budget of her office. Next year’s voters will also accord due credit to Ping Lacson’s record as chief of the Philippine National Police and as a senator single-mindedly battling the instigators and beneficiaries of the pork barrel. And they will take note of Sara Duterte’s service as chief executive of Mindanao’s largest city.

Finally, there is the factor of personal character. The standouts in this regard are Leni Robredo and Manny Pacquiao; their public-service records are totally without blemish. Senator Lacson is not known to have enriched himself during his long years in public service and he has steadfastly refused to avail himself of his pork-barrel allotment. As for Bongbong Marcos, the kindest thing that one can say about the late dictator’s son and namesake is that he and good character are total strangers to one another.

The foregoing discussion has taken no account of the three Gs (gold, goons, and guns) on the conduct of the coming Presidential election.

The foregoing are the factors that will play major roles in deciding who this country’s voters will choose in next year’s presidential election. The candidate who obtains the highest score in respect of each of the factors should emerge as the new president of the Philippines.

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