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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Five candidates

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Five candidates"Rodrigo Duterte has shown us that six years can be a very long time."

 

 

Five men and women either are widely believed to be interested in running for the presidency in the 2022 election or have publicly indicated a desire to make such a run. Leni Robredo and Sara Duterte are widely expected to file certificates of candidacy for the position of president. Manny Pacquiao, Panfilo Lacson, and Antonio Trillanes IV already have announced their candidacy for this country’s highest position.

Barring a surprise—or surprises—that the Philippine political system will produce between now and the COC-filing deadline, these men and women- the Vice President of the Philippines, the mayor of Davao City, two sitting senators and a former senator – will almost certainly be candidates for the position of president. One of them will be the next President of the Philippines.

The political activities of Sara Duterte, because she is First Daughter,  have been receiving the greatest amount of media attention. The mayor of Davao City has been highly unsubtle about her 2022 political intentions, alternating between issuing weak denials of any interest in running for the Presidency, visiting key provinces and cities for “consultations” with their political leaders and interviewing a potential running-mate. Being the stubborn woman that her father has pictured her to be, there can be little doubt that Sara Duterte will be a candidate for president in the coming election. Mayor Sara has to make a bid for the presidency while her father still has the power and can command the resources of the government; in 2028 she will merely be the daughter of a former President.

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Many things are being said about Vice-President Leni Robredo in the run-up to the start of the 2022 electoral season. It is being said, among other things, that the nation’s No.2 official does not want to run for any elective position next year, that she wants to run for the presidency but is unable to attract sufficient financial support and – most recently – that she prefers to run for the governorship of her home province, Camarines Sur. If this were a multiple-choice examination, the correct answer would be “none of the above.”

Leni Robredo will be running for President in the 2022 election and will be making an announcement to that effect in due time. There are numerous reasons why she will be running for president.

First and foremost among these reasons is that Vice-President Robredo symbolizes the opposition to President Rodrigo Duterte and his administration. She is not only the titular head of the Liberal Party by virtue of her being the highest-ranking national official belonging to the party; she is the Liberal Party’s real, on-the-ground head. The OVP (Office of the Vice-President) is the nerve center of the Liberal Party.

Some individuals have been sincere and consistent critics of the Duterte administration; Senator Trillanes is foremost among them. But they do not symbolize the Opposition; it is Leni Robredo who does that, a role that she has played effectively during the last five years.

Vice President Robredo would be perfectly within her rights if she were to decide to not lead the Opposition in battle next year against the Duterte administration’s chosen Presidential candidate. But, realizing that all the anti-Duterte forces in this country expect her to bear the Opposition standard in the 2022 election, Leni Robredo will almost certainly want to lead them into battle next year.

Antonio Trillanes IV appears to have been thinking that, with his steadfast disdain of, and opposition to, President Duterte, he has earned the right to be the Opposition’s standard-bearer in the 2022 Presidential election. After promising to support a Robredo-led, unified Opposition slate next year, he found an excuse to renege on that promise – and launch his own candidacy for president – when Vice President Robredo recently met with Senator Panfilo Lacson to explore the possibility of forging a united front against the Duterte camp’s 2022 slate. Mr. Trillanes does not consider Panfilo Lacson a true oppositionist, pointing to the former PNP (Philippine National Police) chief’s support for many Duterte-administration policies during the last five years. There is a possibility that gutsy Antonio Trillanes IV can be placated and brought back into the 1Sambayan tent, but, given the former Senator’s ambition and character, that possibility is increasingly becoming remote.

Senator Manny Pacquiao, the Kamao ng Bayan, was considered a staunch ally of President Duterte during his first five years in office, voting with the pro-administration “supermajority” on almost all policy issues. Great shock there was then, when a few weeks ago the boxer-turned-politician stated publicly that corruption had become much worse under the Duterte administration. Manny Pacquiao should have known that making accusations against the Duterte administration regarding corruption and illegal drugs was tantamount to a declaration of war. War it quickly became, with Senator Pacquiao identifying corrupt government departments, President Duterte’s PDP-Laban henchmen deposing the Senator as party president and Mr. Duterte hurling personal insults at the boxing icon. With the bridges between him and President Duterte now burned, Manny Pacquiao intends to find out what his popularity and his wealth will do for him on May 9, 2022.

Panfilo Lacson ran for President in 2004 against the incumbent, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and FPJ (Fernando Poe Jr.); he lost. He will be running again in next year’s election, believing that he will be the strongest opponent of President Duterte’s handpicked candidate.

This, notwithstanding the fact that he is widely regarded as an ally of Mr. Duterte. The former top cop is banking on the support of probable running-mate Vicente Sotto III’s party, NPC (Nationalist People’s Coalition).

May 2022 will be now-or-never time for Panfilo Lacson as well. Today he is at the peak of his influence; in 2028 he will be just another senator, assuming that the voters return him to the Senate.

Barring a withdrawal or withdrawals the above individuals will be the candidates for president in the coming election. One of them will win and lead this country in the six years beginning July 1, 2022. Rodrigo Duterte has shown that six years can be a very long time, so the estimated 63 million Filipinos eligible to vote next year should choose very wisely.

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