Many Filipinos were skeptical when Rodrigo Duterte stated upon his assumption of the Presidency that his administration would conclude a final settlement with the CPP-NPA rebels, who have been waging one of the longest-running communist insurgencies in the world. True, Mr. Duterte had established rapport with the NPA as part of his strategy of maintaining peace and order in Davao City during his mayorship. But the skepticism about the success prospects of his intended peace initiative was not without basis.
For starters, there is the increasingly strong feeling in government circles that the CPP-NPA leadership that is in exile in Europe no longer has a decisive influence, much less control, over the cadres on the ground in this country. This is not surprising, considering that the movement’s top leaders, Jose Ma. Sison and Luis Jalandoni, have been physically separated from the cadres for no less than thirty years. This is not to suggest that Sison and Jalandoni no longer enjoy respect and influence among the rebel fighters—estimated by military intelligence to number around 4,000—but proximity gives rise to we-are-in-this-together feelings among the people who have to undergo the hardships of rebellion and to make the ultimate sacrifice when inevitable. This boils down to the question, are the Utrecht-based leaders capable of delivering the entire CPP-NPA to the government if and when a final peace accord is ready for signature?
Another factor militating against the success prospects of the ongoing negotiations with the CPP-NPA is the onerousness of the communist movement’s package of demands, which range from the socio-economic to the political. The socio-economic demands are the ones I’m particularly concerned about. Some of them are not doable in an environment that is democratic and market-based. Take industrialization. Exactly what kind of industrialization do the CPP-NPA negotiators want? Are they contemplating the kind of industrialization that is dictated by market (and government-budget) realities, or are they thinking of the kind of industrialization program where the government dictates, against market realities, the industrial things that will be manufactured and the manufacturers thereof? In this day and age industries that are not reflective of market preferences are doomed from inception.
Still another factor militating against the success of the ongoing peace negotiations is the capability of the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) and, perhaps more important, the CPP-NPA’s assessment of that capability. Because of the government’s record of inadequate spending on the needs of the military establishment, and in view of the overstretched situation of the AFP, the CPP-NPA knows that the AFP is in no position to deliver a knockout punch, let alone a decisive blow, anytime soon. Accordingly, it thinks that its hit-and-run attacks on troops and policemen up and down the country constitute a viable strategy.
A final reason militating against the conclusion of a final, comprehensive peace accord with the CPP-NPA is the AFP’s inability to put a stop to the parallel tax system being maintained by the communist rebels in the hinterlands of this country. Anyone who thinks that the CPP-NPA units in the far-flung areas of this country are withering on the vine because of lack of funds is a dreamer. A dreamer, likewise, is a person who believes that companies and businessmen operating in places like Caraga, Quezon and Samar staunchly refuse to pay so-called revolutionary taxes to the CPP-NPA. Businesses either have to maintain a modus Vivendi with the rebels or have to stop operations; that is their stark choice. What are they expected to do when the government is unable to give them round-the-clock protection. It goes without saying that the CPP-NPA is relishing its status as a parallel Bureau of Internal Revenue.
Every sensible Filipino wants to see the signing of a final peace accord with the CPP-NPA, and the sooner the better. But desire is one thing and on-the-ground realities are another. Given the realities cited above, I am constrained to say, with utmost sadness, that the ongoing negotiations are unlikely to produce a final peace accord with the CPP-NPA in the foreseeable future.