“The polls point to one thing. “
It’s game over for Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo’s presidential candidacy.
All the major polls indicate former Senator Ferdinand Romualdez “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. will win the presidency on May 9, 2022, hands down, by wide margins of anywhere from 20 million to 26 million votes.
Bongbong Marcos has run on a platform to unify the country and engage the Marcos family’s powerful detractors.
But voters want Marcos Jr. as their 17th president, for two main reasons—one, he is the son of the late strongman Ferdinand Edralin Marcos, president of the Philippines for 20 years; and two, his likable personality.
Bongbong enjoys an awesome net trust rating of +51 percent, according to the Laylo Research poll of April 2022. He is trusted “very much” by 38 percent of the 3,000 polled by Laylo, and trusted “much” by another 30 percent, for an awesome total trust rating of 68 percent. Just 17 percent with no or little trust in BBM—10 percent “little” trust and 7 percent “very little” trust. The 17 percent no trust rating is less than a fifth of the population. About 14 percent are undecided.
In contrast, Leni Robredo has a disappointing net trust rating of -19 percent. She is one of the most distrusted vice presidents in history. She is trusted “very much” by just 10 percent of the population and trusted “much” by another 19 percent for a total trust of just 29 percent. She is little trusted by 23 percent and very little trusted by another 26 percent, a total distrust of 49 percent. That’s half of the population. About 29 percent are undecided.
Robredo’s battle cry was to fight the Marcoses and prevent them from regaining presidential power. The call gained little, if any, traction and her poll ratings stagnated in the 20s or below, during the campaign period, from October 2021 to April this year.
The April 2-6 survey of OCTA Research showed Marcos Jr winning, 57 percent vs. Robredo’s 22 percent, a distance of 21 million votes in the Unity Team’s standard bearer’s favor.
The Laylo Research poll of April 14-20 shows a markedly dramatic victory for Marcos—64 percent against Robredo’s 21 percent, a difference of 43 points equivalent to 25.8 million votes.
A reliable pollster, Laylo polled 3,000 respondents in 80 provinces, 38 highly urbanized cities, 294 towns, and 600 barangays. Margin of error is +/- 2 percent.
In Laylo, Marcos trounced Leni in all the major voting areas—62 percent voting for him in the National Capital Region, 80 percent in North Central Luzon, 46 percent in South Luzon and Bicol, 57 percent in the Visayas, and 75 percent in Mindanao.
In the Publicus Asia poll of April 19-21, Marcos was steady at 57 percent against Robredo’s 21 percent, with BBM ahead by 21.5 million votes..
In the Manila Bulletin-Tangere April 20-22 survey, Marcos enjoyed a 51.54 percent share of the vote. Robredo was a dismal third, with 18.25 percent. BBM is ahead by 33.29 points, equivalent to 20 million votes.
In Tangere, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno scored an upset with a 20.38 percent second place standing to BBM.
Averaging these four April 2022 surveys (OCTA, Laylo, Publicus, and Tangere) shows BBM with a commanding 57.38 percent share of the vote, nearly a three-to-one advantage over Robredo’s 20.56 percent.
A 57.38 percent voting preference translates into 34.42 million votes for Marcos. A 20.56 percent cut indicates Leni will garner 12.33 million votes—a huge 22-million-vote deficit to BBM’s 34.42 million votes.
This weekend the best of the pollsters, Pulse Asia, should come out with its April survey findings. Its results are not expected to be different—Marcos Jr wins if elections are held today.
If Marcos Jr. wins on May 9, he will have staged the most stunning comeback in Philippine political history.
Bongbong is the only son and namesake of the late strongman Ferdinand Edralin Marcos Sr. (FM), who ruled with an iron will from Dec. 30, 1965 to Feb. 25, 1986.
Derided as a dictator, Marcos Sr. won reelection three times – in 1969, with 62 percent of the vote; in 1981, with 80 percent of the vote; and in the snap election of February 1986 against Corazon Cojuangco Aquino, the widow of his slain arch rival Benigno S. Aquino Jr., with 53.62 percent of the vote. Marcos got 10.8 million votes to Cory Aquino’s 9.29 million (46.10 percent), in the official Comelec count, clearly a winner. But the ailing strongman was ousted by a coup d’ etat engineered by a rebellious military faction backed by the US CIA, the Catholic Church, and anti-Marcos Big Business, in what is now called People Power.
FM’s political opponents claimed he stole between $5 billion and $10 million and violated human rights large-scale during 14 years of martial law in his 20-year presidency.
Cory and subsequent governments after her disastrous presidency of six years and four months failed to prove nor locate much of the so-called ill-gotten wealth. The bulk or less than half of the alleged $10-billion wealth cache or $4 billion turned out to be investments in large Philippines companies that prospered after 1986.
Included in the $4 billion is the P84 billion ($1.68 billion) common shares representing 31 percent of beer and brewery conglomerate San Miguel Corp.. The shares were later converted by the government into preferred shares which SMC’s controlling stockholder, the late Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., redeemed after three years, paying cash to the government. Cojuangco had said he was never a crony and he brought out no money to stash abroad. The P84 billion has grown to over P100 billion as a trust fund to develop the local coconut industry.
Marcos Jr’s impending victory will in effect be a tremendous redemption of a political dynasty much hated by the entrenched business elite.
“The late Mr. Marcos is revered as a visionary leader, his wife a style icon. Many believe the allegations against them were made up by jealous enemies, and view the family’s return to power as their moral exoneration,” reported the Wall Street Journal on April 14, 2022.