Citing the continuing rise in the virus reproduction rate outside Metro Manila, the independent OCTA Research Group on Sunday said the country could see 20,000 fresh COVID-19 cases a day within two weeks.
OCTA Research fellow Guido David said hitting 20,000 cases a day was very likely because the reproduction number—or the number of people one patient can infect—has been greater than 1.
Nationwide, it stands at 1.45 and is still rising.
Metro Manila, which was placed under a two-week lockdown earlier this month, saw its reproduction rate fall from 1.9 to 1.67 this week, an indication he said that the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) was effective.
Guido said the downward trend in new cases may be observed in the next few weeks but this will require sustained efforts in pandemic management over the next four weeks by the local and national government and the public.
He said the effects of the ECQ might be apparent in the first or second week of September as cases in Metro Manila decline.
The National Capital Region (NCR) is averaging 3,500 new cases a day, versus 4,000 previously, David said.
The country logged 16,044 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 1,839,635.
A total of 13,952 people recovered from the coronavirus while 215 died.
Of the total number of cases, the Department of Health (DOH) said 6.8 percent or 125,900 are active cases, 91.4 percent or 1,681,925 are recoveries and 1.73 percent or 31,810 died.
With the shift to a modified ECQ, businesses in Metro Manila, Bataan and Laguna have been allowed to reopen at 50 percent of their capacity, except for sectors that are considered high-risk.
In an advisory issued by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), establishments that are still closed include personal care services like beauty salons, beauty parlors, barbershops and indoor and al-fresco operations of restaurants, eateries and commissaries.
Operations with sustained full operations are the hospitals, health centers for dialysis and chemotherapy, health insurance providers, disaster risk reduction management officers; manufacturers of medicines and vitamins, medical supplies, devices and equipment, including suppliers of input, packaging, and distribution; industries involved in agriculture, forestry, fishery, and the food value chain; logistics service providers, cargo handling, warehousing, trucking, and similar operations; manufacturing related to food, beverages, and other essential goods like soap and detergents, diapers, personal hygiene products and disinfectants; companies that manufacture, distribute and/or supply equipment or products necessary to perform construction or maintenance works, such as cement and steel or spare parts.
Essential and priority construction projects are also at 100 percent capacity as well as essential retail trade and service establishments, food preparation establishments, public and private financial service providers, business process outsourcing establishments (BPOs) and export-oriented businesses, public transport providers and operators, sanitation and waste disposal, capital markets and utilities including gasoline stations, and telecommunications services.
Media establishments and their total permanent staff complement, inclusive of reporters and other field employees are allowed at 50 percent capacity. On the other hand, private corporations are encouraged to process payrolls online.
Other establishments and industries that have opened on half their capacities include manufacturers of electrical machinery, wood products, non-metallic products, textiles and wearing apparel, paper and paper products, rubber and plastic products, coke and refined petroleum products, other non-metallic mineral products, computer, electronic, or optical products, machinery, motor vehicles, and non-essential retail trade and service establishments.
Hotels and other accommodation establishments are also allowed to operate at 50 percent capacity following the protocols and guidelines issued by the Department of Tourism.
Testing and tutorial services are allowed at 50 percent capacity as well as review centers and schools but classroom-type face-to-face interaction remains prohibited.
Also on Sunday, the Philippine National Police (PNP) said it confronted 149,963 health protocol violators during the 15 days of EQQ in Metro Manila. Most of the violators were merely given warnings, though some were fined or made to perform community service.
Most of the violations were over the failure to wear a face mask or face shield, failure to follow social distancing rules, or being involved in mass gatherings.
The PNP also warned drivers of public utility vehicles to strictly follow the minimum public health standards or face citation tickets.
PNP chief Guillermo Eleazar said the Highway Patrol Group (HPG) has already been instructed to issue traffic violation tickets to the operators and drivers of PUVs especially in the National Capital Region and nearby provinces of Bulacan, Laguna, Rizal, and Cavite.