The surge in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila this past week is worse than the one that prompted a strict lockdown in August last year, said researchers from the University of the Philippines who have been tracking the pandemic.
The OCTA Research Team forecasts the country would tally 5,000 to 6,000 new cases per day by the end of March, with Metro Manila reaching 2,000 daily new cases per day by March 21, and 3,000 new cases per day by March 31, if the current reproduction rate continues.
OCTA said the National Capital Region, home to about a tenth of the country's population, has recorded an average of 1,025 new daily cases over the past seven days, an increase of 42 percent from the previous week and 130 percent compared to two weeks ago.
"The last time the region had seen this rate of increase was in July 2021.
However, this surge is spreading more quickly than the July-August surge, and this suggests the possibility that the surge is driven by SARS-Cov2 variants," the research group said.
"The priority now is to contain or mitigate the spread of these more contagious
and lethal variants apart from preventing the surge in the region from becoming full-blown," it added.
Metro Manila's surge from July to August last year prompted President Rodrigo Duterte to place the region under a modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ).
Six months after confirming its first COVID-19 case, the Philippines on Aug. 3, 2020 breached the 100,000-mark in its cumulative total of infections after a record 5,032 new cases were reported that day.
On Friday and Saturday, the country's additional cases each topped the 3,000 mark, pushing the cumulative total to 591,138, of which, 43,323 are active infections.
Metro Manila accounted for nearly 41 percent of the total cases, with 241,915, latest data from the Department of Health showed.
The OCTA Research Team urged high-risk local governments to further intensify their anti-virus efforts by implementing strict localized lockdowns, and expanding testing, contact tracing, and quarantine facilities.
Among these high-risk areas are Pasay, Makati, Malabon and Navotas. The group noted all local governments in the capital region except for Valenzuela City showed an upward trend in infections.
"Effective and more stringent border controls must be observed to mitigate COVID-19 transmissions from the NCR and between provinces and prevent the spread of the virus," it said.
The group also urged health workers to vaccinate themselves against COVID-19. The country last week began its immunization campaign against the coronavirus.
"We subscribe to the belief that the best vaccine is the vaccine that is available at this time. For now, these are the vaccines developed by Oxford/AstraZeneca and Sinovac," it said.
The group reiterated its call for the government to re-evaluate protocols for international travelers entering the country.
"The fact that SARS-Cov2 variants of foreign origin have entered our country supports this call for stricter guidelines andr stricter implementation of the existing guidelines. In many countries, [a] 14-day quarantine is mandatory, even after the traveler has tested negative for SARS-Cov2," it said.
The government on Friday reported that the number of South African or B.1.351 variant cases in the country has climbed to 58, while that of the UK variant already reached 118.
First detected in Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa in October, the South African variant has been found in more than 30 countries and accounts for more than 90 percent of SARS-CoV-2 samples in South Africa that undergo genetic sequencing.
The Health Department said that of the 52 new cases of the South African variant, one patient from Metro Manila already recovered, while the remaining 51 cases are active infections and are being managed.
There are also 42 mutations of "potential clinical significance."
The Philippines logged 3,276 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 594,412, as seven laboratories were not able to submit their data on time, the DOH said.
This was the third straight day that the country recorded over 3,000 new cases.
The DOH reported 51 new fatalities, bringing the death toll to 12,516, which is 2.11 percent of the total.
The DOH also reported 10,516 new recoveries, in the mass recovery adjustment, bringing the total recoveries to 545,853, which is 91.8 percent of the total.
Treatment czar Health Undersecretary Leopoldo Vega said the surge was “alarming.”
“We're taking necessary precautionary measures, especially in hospitals,” he said.
Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles, who was among those pushing to ease quarantine restrictions, said the current surge would be monitored and would be taken into account in determining Metro Manila's status in April.
The DOH met with representatives of different Metro Manila hospitals to address the spike in hospital admissions over the last few days.
Some of the country's top hospitals in the National Capital Region have started to feel the effects of a steep increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, with the spike at the Philippine General Hospital in Manila being likened to a "mini outbreak."
"It's a red flag (because) within a short period of time, the figures are high," said PGH spokesperson Jonas del Rosario.
Clinical rotation of medicine interns and face-to-face consultations at PGH clinics have already been temporarily suspended. The PGH spokesman suspects that the new variants of coronavirus have something to do with the spike in admissions.
Makati City, Lapu-Lapu City, and the Ifugao Province are at a high-risk classification in hospitalization rates.
Despite these developments, the DOH said there are enough hospital beds and medical staff for the expected increase in hospital admissions.
PGH has seen a steady increase in its COVID-19 cases in the last week, Del Rosario said.
PGH was also informed by the Philippine Genome Center that "one of 30 anonymized samples" from the facility was found to have the South African variant of the disease.
The largest COVID-19 referral hospital in the country had 105 virus patients as of Saturday, the largest in four months, said Del Rosario.
Fifteen health care workers were also found infected with the coronavirus in the first four days of March, he added.
"This high number in a short period of time prompted the PGH administration to take proactive measures such as extensive contact tracing, testing and quarantining those who were exposed and isolating those who are sick to curb further spread of the disease," he said in a statement.
The hospital has temporarily suspended elective surgical procedures, and outpatient consultation must be done via telemedicine, Del Rosario said.
The outpatient department will not receive walk-ins in the meantime, he added.
The Philippine Red Cross (PRC), meanwhile, said it has recorded a higher COVID-19 positivity rate in its confirmatory tests since February.
The PRC conducts RT-PCR tests on returning overseas Filipinos and saliva tests.
Dr. Paulyn Ubial, head of PRC's molecular laboratories, said the positivity rate has risen from only 2 to 4 percent in December and January to 7 to 11 percent today.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a positivity rate of 5.0 percent or lower for at least 14 days before governments consider easing quarantine restrictions.
Ubial said the PRC has sent "more than 400 samples" to the Philippine Genome Center (PGC) for sequencing.
The PGC has so far found 14 COVID-19 variants in the 3,044 samples it tested, Ubial said.
