The number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila could shoot up to 1,000 daily from its current 400 a day if minimum health standards set by the government are not observed during the holiday season, a researcher who has tracked the pandemic said Saturday.
In an interview on ABS-CBN's TeleRadyo, Dr. Guido David of the OCTA Research Team said Metro Manila showed a big improvement in terms of COVID-19 numbers, but these are not yet enough to further ease community quarantine restrictions.
“What we're preventing is an increase where we’ll go back to having 2,000 cases per day. We're anticipating a surge that may reach from 800 to 1,000 cases per day in Metro Manila, but that is still manageable,” David said in Filipino.
David said they expect the number of cases to go up as the holiday season nears, with more people crowding malls and traditional shopping districts to buy gifts.
No New Year street parties or public gatherings will be allowed and fireworks displays will be regulated to prevent a fresh surge in COVID-19 infections, according to Metro Manila Council chairman Parañaque Mayor Edwin Olivarez.
“Overcrowding is something we are watching out for,” he said.
He cited a recent study in India that showed minors have a big potential for spreading the virus.
“That’s why we want to limit the movement of minors and seniors. We're not telling them not to go out but only to limit it,” David said.
David said that many people are now feeling the pandemic fatigue, but urged the public to limit movement, avoid overcrowding and observe health protocols such as frequent hand washing and the wearing of face masks and face shields.
These were proven to curb the spread of the virus for the past three months, he said.
“The cases decrease when we follow protocols set by the government and the Department of Health. That’s why we're more relaxed now and can afford to go out because our hospitals are not as full as before,” he said.
The OCTA Research Group said that there might be a total of 500,000 cases by the end of the year.
“We expect an uptick but it will not be worse, we will not reach the critical level, and this will decrease by January,” he said.
The Philippines on Sunday logged 1,768 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total to 439,834, the Department of Health (DOH) said.
The DOH also reported that 9,062 persons recovered recently, bringing total recoveries to 408,634, which is 92.9 percent of the total cases.
The DOH also reported 29 new fatalities, bringing the death toll to 8,554, which is 1.94 percent of the total cases.
There are 22,646 active cases, which is 5.1 percent of the total cases. Of the active cases, 84.2 percent are mild; 6.2 percent asymptomatic; 6.1 percent critical; 3.1 percent severe; and 0.34 percent moderate.
The heaviest hit provinces and cities are Quezon City, 112; Laguna, 94; Rizal, 90; Davao City, 71; and Benguet, 69.
Meanwhile, Surigao del Sur Rep. Johnny Pimentel called for the listing of all private and public cold chain logistics solutions ahead of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination.
““The vaccination of an initial batch of 35 million Filipinos is bound to call for the mobilization of a wide-range of cold storage assets – from temperature-controlled refrigerated trucking services to ample supplies of dry ice,” Pimentel, a COVID-19 survivor, he said.
“The logistical challenge is enormous, considering that everybody will need two shots of the vaccine at an interval of 19 to 42 days,” he added.
The most promising COVID-19 vaccine is reputed to be 95 percent effective, but has to be stored in ultra-low temperature packed in dry ice.
The American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc., which jointly developed the vaccine with German biotech firm BioNTech SE, has designed distribution containers that could keep the shots at the required temperature of negative 70 degrees Celsius for 10 days if unopened.
The distribution containers could also be used for temporary storage in a vaccination facility, such as a hospital, for up to 30 days as long as they are reloaded with dry ice every five days.
Once thawed, the vaccines could be stored in a refrigerator at two to eight degrees Celsius for up to five days.
On Dec. 2, the United Kingdom became the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for emergency use in a COVID-19 public inoculation program.
The US Food and Drug Administration is expected to consider on Dec. 10 the possible approval of the same vaccine for emergency use in America.
“This early, we would expect our inter-Agency Task Force of Emerging Infectious Diseases to make an inventory of all obtainable cold storage provisions, including those held by private firms, that can be harnessed to deliver the vaccines across the country without delay,” Pimentel said.
“We have to be geared up to cope, if we want to swiftly vaccinate millions of Filipinos, especially the most vulnerable ones such as our health care workers, those aged 65 years old and above and those with underlying ailments,” he added.
Currently, the Department of Health has only one bulk cold storage facility at the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine in Muntinlupa City.
The DOH has a long-term plan to put up regional cold storage warehouses as part of its modern supply chain for temperature-sensitive medical supplies, but Pimentel expressed concern that the facilities may not be built in time for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign.
“We may have to rely on cold chain solutions that are already available,” he said.
Also on Sunday, party-list Rep. Mike Defensor said the country's top 5,000 corporations are expected to come up with plans to immunize 5 million of their workers against COVID-19 once a vaccine becomes available.
“As part of their business sustainability management, we are counting on our largest private firms to arrange and spend for the mass vaccination of their respective workforces,” he said.
Defensor is the House health committee vice chairperson.
“The direct participation of big private employers in the COVID-19 immunization campaign will lessen the financial and logistical burden on the government,” he said.
“This will allow our Department of Health to concentrate on vaccinating disadvantaged Filipinos, such as those in the informal economy. If private corporations can immunize their own employees, then the government will have 5 million Filipinos [fewer] to target for vaccination,” he added.
Senator Joel Villanueva, on the other hand, said the government should take the lead in restoring business confidence and create jobs by increasing spending on infrastructure such as public health facilities and health care services.
Villanueva, chairman of the Senate labor committee, issued the call in the wake of the unemployment report from the Philippine Statistics Authority saying joblessness in the country decreased to 8.7 percent in October, or about 3.8 million Filipinos, but largely because people stopped looking for work.
“We are bothered by the fact that the latest data clearly reflects how the pandemic is manifesting on the psyche of our workers, who decided to stop looking for work at all. We cannot afford to let the morale of our labor force to slump further. That is why our government should intervene by increasing spending to restore business confidence.”