The state weather bureau on Thursday said there is a 90 percent chance that the El Niño phenomenon will persist until the first quarter of 2024.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s forecast showed there is a 53 percent chance that the El Niño would reach a strong level toward the latter part of 2023.
“We see a 90 percent chance that the El Niño will persist until the first quarter ng 2024,” Climatology and Agrometeorology Division chief Thelma Cinco said.
Several areas in the Bicol Region and Western Visayas experienced a heat index of 46°C on Wednesday.
PAGASA classifies heat indices reaching 42°C to 51°C as under “dangerous” level, which may cause heat stroke and heat exhaustion.
According to the United Nations, it is near-certain that 2023-2027 will be the warmest five-year period ever recorded as greenhouse gases and El Niño combine to send temperatures soaring.
There is a two-thirds chance that at least one of the next five years will see global temperatures exceed the more ambitious target set out in the Paris accords on limiting climate change, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
The hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, with 2016 the warmest—but temperatures are forecast to increase further as climate change accelerates.
“There is a 98-percent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said.
The 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900—and 1.5°C if possible.
The global mean temperature in 2022 was 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The WMO said there was a 66 percent chance that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023-2027, with a range of 1.1°C to 1.8°C forecasted for each of those five years.
“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said the agency’s chief Petteri Taalas.
“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
El Niño is the large-scale warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weather phenomenon normally occurs every two to seven years.